A sustained move over the 50-day moving average will indicate the buying is getting stronger. This could lead to a test of the next swing top at $63.28. Taking out this top would put the 200-day moving average at $70.92 on the radar.
On the downside, a sustained move back under the major 50% level at $60.835 will signal the return of sellers. If this creates enough downside momentum, look for a near-term pullback to $58.00.
What to Watch
Silver needs crude staying lower, yields staying contained and the dollar staying under pressure. All three lined up this week and that is why the move has been fast. If any one of them reverses, the rally gets tested.
Friday’s jobs report can either extend this trade or kill it. A weak number with softer wages keeps the dollar unwind going and gives buyers room to push toward the 50-day moving average. A strong print with firm hiring, hands Schmid and the rest of the hawks exactly what they need, and the rate trade reassembles.
The swing chart trend has changed to up but buyers are chasing a macro relief trade, not a structural shift. They have momentum as long as the data cooperates. The moment it stops cooperating, sellers have a clean level to come back in at.
More Information in our Economic Calendar.
