The report that Iran would assault US army targets in Europe and the European international locations serving to America, ought to Donald Trump escalate the struggle, has revived as soon as once more the controversy over whether or not Iran has the capability to hold out its threats.
The newly appointed Chief of the Common Employees of Iran’s Armed Forces, Main Common Ali Abdollahi, posted on X, warning that any type of help to the US army might be interpreted by Tehran as lively “complicity” with American forces.
He pointed to a rising focus of US army plane throughout regional installations, saying, “It’s unbelievable that this quantity of army plane, significantly aerial refueling tankers, is working out of regional bases with out the notice of host nations.”
Additionally on July 19, Iran’s deputy International Minister for Authorized and Worldwide Affairs, Kazem Gharibabadi, emphasised that “any nation that fingers its future over to foreigners can pay a heavy value”.
Thus, Tehran’s message is not confined to the Center East. Europe is now being advised explicitly that it can not keep on the sidelines of the Iran-Israel-US confrontation.
However the query is whether or not Iran has the capability to harm the Europeans. And in that case, in what varieties?
To date, a British airbase in Cyprus is the one European location that an Iran-made drone has struck because the begin of the US-Israel struggle on Iran in February.
The assault on March 2 was in response to the then British Prime Minister Keir Starmer asserting that the US might use British bases for restricted defensive functions, although the UK authorities maintained the drone was airborne earlier than the coverage shift was finalized.
Secondly, in March, NATO and Turkish protection officers confirmed a number of events the place alliance air protection property intercepted ballistic missiles launched from Iran heading towards or getting into Turkey’s airspace. This was a threshold Tehran had not crossed earlier than.
These interceptions—occurring on separate dates marked a vital escalation as Iranian missiles crossed Iraq and Syria earlier than being neutralized.
On March 4, the primary reported incident was intercepted by NATO forces earlier than the incoming ballistic missile crossed totally into Turkish territory. A second missile entered Turkish airspace and was destroyed on March 9. NATO efficiently intercepted the third and fourth incursions on March 13 and March 30.
Thirdly, on March 20-21, US and Allied officers reported that Iran launched two modified Khorramshahr intermediate-range ballistic missiles focusing on the joint US–UK army base on the Indian Ocean island of Diego Garcia, roughly 4,000 kilometers away.
Although one missile broke aside mid-flight and the second was neutralized by American air defenses, Iran’s strategic message was clear that it possesses the engineering functionality to mission kinetic energy as much as 4,000 kilometers, inserting the center of Western Europe theoretically inside its crosshairs.
Traditionally, Iran had adhered to a self-declared, politically delicate cap of 2,000 kilometers on its ballistic missile vary. This distance was deliberately calibrated to carry regional adversaries like Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the quick fringes of southeastern Europe hostage with out frightening a direct battle with Washington or main NATO powers like Germany, the UK, and France.
By focusing on Diego Garcia, Iran eliminated this cover.
Modifying the propulsion phases and payload configurations of its premier solid-fueled programs—such because the Khorramshahr-4 and the hypersonic-class Sejil—Iranian engineers successfully doubled their attain. The check in the direction of Diego Garcia proved that capitals like Berlin, Paris, and London are not geographically remoted from Iranian attain.
In keeping with consultants, a breakdown of the particular European international locations in danger contains:
The Fast Frontline
Southeastern European states of Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Greece, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Romania, and Serbia are probably the most instantly susceptible to any Iranian missile assault as a result of their geographic proximity and the presence of Western army bases.
These nations fall comfortably inside Iran’s traditionally confirmed 2,000-kilometer missile vary.
Right here, Cyprus has been recognized as probably the most susceptible flashpoint. As identified already, the RAF Akrotiri British airbase in Cyprus was already struck by an Iranian-made drone.
Then, there’s Bulgaria. Right here, high-level safety alerts have been triggered on the Bezmer Air Base when intelligence studies revealed that Iranian planners mapped the bottom as a major goal after Bulgaria accredited its use for US army refueling plane.
Each Greece and Romania host key US and NATO infrastructure. The US Aegis Ashore missile protection website is in Deveselu, Romania. Heavy-payload Iranian ballistic missiles just like the Khorramshahr can straight hit these two international locations.
The Prolonged Goal
Following a twin ballistic missile check towards the US-U.Ok. base at Diego Garcia, safety officers have warned that changed Iranian propulsion programs might lengthen their attain as much as 4,000 kilometers.
In that case, Germany, France, and Italy in Western Europe would theoretically be within the crosshairs if Iran deploys intermediate-range configurations.
Whereas geographically distant, the UK could also be comparatively protected, however not its property in Cyprus, Gibraltar, and Diego Garcia.
Nevertheless, will Iran actually assault Europe even when, theoretically talking, it could?
Two components make one elevate this query.
First, a strike on a European nation would set off Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, inviting a devastating collective army response that the Iranian management acknowledges as an existential risk.
A NATO official reportedly mentioned, “NATO is ready to deal with any risk and can all the time do what is critical to defend all Allies.”
In an announcement, the NATO official added that NATO intercepted 4 ballistic missiles Iran launched in the direction of Turkey this 12 months, providing it as proof the army alliance’s “deterrence protection posture is robust and efficient” in opposition to outdoors threats.
However what concerning the European international locations that aren’t precisely underneath NATO’s formal umbrella? For example, Cyprus, Eire, Austria, Switzerland, and Malta should not NATO members.
However then there are ways out. These international locations are members of the European Union(EU). That membership offers a parallel layer of obligations. Below Article 42(7) of the Treaty on European Union, any assault on an EU member state legally compels all different EU member states to supply help.
And there’s the European Sky Protect initiative — a German-led procurement and integration program that impartial states, together with Austria and Switzerland, have joined — which is steadily weaving non-NATO nations into the continent’s shared air protection community.
That explains why when an Iranian drone hit Cyprus, even NATO members like Greece, Italy, the Netherlands and Spain quickly deployed frigates and F-16s to defend the Mediterranean island’s airspace.
Secondly, there are additionally operational limits to the Iranian missiles and drones. To date, none of its assaults on the European property talked about above labored; they have been repulsed. However what’s extra critical is the situation the place diverting high-value strategic property towards Europe would degrade Iran’s home protection posture and invite quick pre-emptive counter-strikes.
Regardless of Iran’s bravado about its industrial resiliency, there are deserves within the logic that the US-Israeli assaults have brought about setbacks to the nation’s missile capabilities and that it’s extremely unbelievable that Tehran will dare to check Europe’s assured retaliation.
Nevertheless, consultants concern that Iran can damage Europe by executing a complicated, uneven technique. Tehran has efficiently constructed a “hybrid risk matrix” designed to paralyze Europe from inside—all whereas staying slightly below the brink of triggering a full-scale struggle.
It’s noteworthy that on June 10, the US, UK, and 19 different international locations, together with Germany, France, Sweden and the Netherlands, launched a joint statement condemning “deadly plotting and different malign actions in Europe… by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Intelligence Group, Quds Power, and Ministry of Intelligence and Safety”.
The targets, they mentioned, included “Iranian dissidents, journalists and Jewish and Israeli communities and pursuits”.
The assertion additionally condemned “the latest marketing campaign of assaults throughout Europe focusing on Jewish communities, Iranian journalists, and U.S. pursuits”.
The governments warned that “makes an attempt to kill, kidnap, harass, intimidate, or in any other case assault folks on our soil undermine nationwide sovereignty and worldwide norms. These actions should cease instantly”.
By the way, the EU had designated the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terrorist group on January 29 this 12 months.
Europol, the European Union Company for Regulation Enforcement Cooperation, the official crime-fighting company of the European Union, has mentioned that the Center East battle has had “quick repercussions” for EU safety, with an elevated risk of terrorism, organized crime, violent extremism and cyberattacks.
It has additionally warned of radicalization through social media: “The fast unfold of polarising content material on the web can speed up short-term radicalization processes amongst diaspora communities inside the EU”.
In actual fact, in Could 2026, Europol led a coordinated worldwide crackdown throughout 19 international locations focusing on greater than 14,200 on-line posts, accounts, and hyperlinks tied to the IRGC. This digital operation restricted the IRGC’s most important X account within the European Union.
British safety businesses have additionally pointed out that IRGC-related cyber models are not merely conducting espionage. As a substitute, they’re actively pre-positioning harmful “wiper” malware inside European vital infrastructure.
Monetary networks, municipal water services, telecommunications hubs, and regional power grids in nations aligned with Western protection insurance policies are going through a relentless wave of digital probes. It’s mentioned to be a extremely efficient marketing campaign of low-level paralysis, permitting Tehran to mission tangible energy into Western Europe with out ever flying a drone throughout European borders.
Contemplating all this, one can say that the bravado of Iranian hardliners displaying a story of Iran launching a rain of ballistic missiles or drones down upon Europe could also be too far-fetched. However Tehran’s technique of slowly fracturing Allied cohesion, destabilizing European home politics by means of cyber sabotage and proxy terror, isn’t being ignored and is underneath fixed vigilance.
- Writer and veteran journalist Prakash Nanda is Chairman of the Editorial Board of the EurAsian Occasions and has been commenting on politics, international coverage, and strategic affairs for almost three a long time. He’s a former Nationwide Fellow of the Indian Council for Historic Analysis and a recipient of the Seoul Peace Prize Scholarship.
- CONTACT: prakash.nanda (at) hotmail.com
