5 min readBhopalAug 3, 2026 05:52 PM IST
First published on: Aug 3, 2026 at 02:35 PM IST
The Datia by-election was never going to decide the fate of the Madhya Pradesh government, but in the end it ended up becoming a test for the BJP’s new state leadership. The bypoll that saw Congress candidate Kunwar Ghanshyam Singh defeat the BJP’s Ashutosh Tiwari by 6,016 votes has also shown an unexpectedly resilient performance by a Congress organisation that entered the contest carrying more baggage than confidence.
Few Opposition parties would have wanted to enter counting after suspending their own former MLA just 24 hours earlier. Former Datia MLA Rajendra Bharti, whose disqualification after a bank fraud conviction necessitated the bypoll, was suspended by the Congress on Sunday after Singh accused him of working against the party.
Bharti had largely stayed away from campaigning and openly questioned the Congress’s campaign while also alleging that Singh had contested with BJP leader Narottam Mishra’s backing.
The Congress was also battling disappointment from ticket aspirants such as Awadhesh Nayak. Until the closing days of the campaign, the party was attempting to project unity. Yet, despite visible fractures, the Congress has remained ahead for most part of the counting, suggesting the election may have become less about the party’s unity and more about voter sentiment against sections of the BJP’s local organisation.
The Narottam Mishra factor
Perhaps no candidate has influenced this election more than someone who never entered the contest.
The BJP’s decision to deny a ticket to six-time MLA and former Home Minister Mishra fundamentally altered the election. Mishra spent months lobbying for the nomination and was widely believed to be preparing for a comeback before the party unexpectedly decided to go with first-timer Tiwari.
The decision triggered an unprecedented rebellion. Office-bearers resigned, Mishra’s supporters blocked highways and the protests turned violent, leaving several policemen injured. Mishra eventually appealed for calm and threw his weight behind Tiwari, campaigning extensively to prevent organisational damage. But the central question remained whether decades of personal loyalty built around Mishra could be transferred overnight to another candidate.
However, the BJP did not deny Mishra a ticket without reason.
Within the party, there was growing concern that Mishra was facing anti-incumbency after his defeat in the 2023 Assembly elections. Party leaders privately acknowledged dissatisfaction among sections of local workers and criticism surrounding the political ecosystem built around him.
The leadership also appeared keen to prevent another powerful regional centre from emerging while Chief Minister Mohan Yadav continues consolidating authority within the state BJP.
Tiwari, on the other hand, represented a clean organisational choice, a RSS leader with no factional baggage and acceptable caste arithmetic.
But replacing a dominant regional leader also meant asking thousands of booth-level workers whose politics revolved around Mishra to suddenly shift their loyalty to an unfamiliar face. That transition appears to have been more difficult than the BJP anticipated, party leaders acknowledged.
The two campaigns
Rarely has a by-election attracted such concentrated attention from the ruling party.
CM Yadav campaigned aggressively. The newly appointed state BJP president Hemant Khandelwal treated it as his first organisational examination. Deputy Chief Minister Jagdish Devda, senior organisational leaders, ministers and legislators were deployed across the constituency. The BJP effectively converted a single-seat bypoll into a test of its organisational strength.
The Congress tried to run a hyper local campaign focussing on farmer distress over erratic rainfall, fertiliser shortages and unemployment among youth. Congress leaders said they deliberately built its campaign around local concerns while simultaneously attempting to exploit dissatisfaction within sections of the BJP organisation.
One of the more intriguing signals from the Datia bypoll lies in where voters turned out. While the overall polling stood at 71.44%, the constituency was sharply divided between urban and rural participation. Urban Datia recorded around 62% turnout, compared to nearly 78% in rural areas — a gap of about 16 percentage points.
Male turnout stood at 74.09%, while female turnout was 68.48%, a gap of more than 5.5 percentage points. This is significant because the BJP had hoped to consolidate women voters through its welfare programmes
The Congress attempted to tap into these issues, building its campaign around farmers, OBC voters and local grievances, while arguing that dissatisfaction had built up against the BJP at the grassroots.
The BJP, on the other hand, countered with its welfare record, highlighting schemes such as the PM-Kisan Samman Nidhi and promising development under the double-engine government.
