The ATP Montreal tournament continues with the third round on Friday. The 1,000-point tournament leads into the upcoming U.S. Open in New York, which is just a few weeks away. For the grass and clay specialists who have been playing a lot of tournaments over the past two months, this is not a good time of year. For everyone else, it’s an opportunity to climb the rankings with so many high-point tournaments on the schedule. This 2026 ATP Montreal event is going to give some unheralded players, or at least players outside the top 15, a real chance to make big upward movements in the ATP rankings. No. 1 seed Alexander Zverev is gone. So is No. 2 seed Felix Auger-Aliassime. Daniil Medvedev and Taylor Fritz are out. Jannik Sinner, Carlos Alcaraz, and Novak Djokovic never even entered the tournament. There’s a lot of pressure but also a huge opportunity. LWOS has our best bets for three matches. Post your best bets and thoughts in the comments.
ATP Montreal
Daniel Merida Aguilar – Alex Michelsen: 12:30 EST
H2H: 0-1
This ATP Montreal match is a very intriguing one. There is reason to like both players. They are both 21 years old and are seen as promising talents who can evolve into even more successful pros than they already are. They have both posted strong wins this week in the ATP Montreal tournament. Merida Aguilar tossed aside Ugo Humbert. Michelsen handled Jan-Lennard Struff and Francisco Cerundolo. Michelsen beat Merida Aguilar earlier this year, but Merida Aguilar has had a really good summer and is showing signs of becoming a better player.
Best Bet to Make
Welcome to our best bet section. You’re going to get a collection of bets to consider, also a confidence level which should guide how much you should invest in this match.
Parlay/hedge options: over 2.5 sets at 2.40 at @10bet, Michelsen moneyline at 1.40 at @bet365
Confidence level on a scale of 1-10: 1 – You should not bet on this match.
This match feels very close even though Michelsen is being priced as the very clear betting favorite. Merida Aguilar won the title in ATP Umag and is putting together a lot of good tennis. Michelsen being the favorite makes sense, but this heavily? Our uncertainty about the match is exactly why you shouldn’t bet on it. If you insist on a bet, Merida Aguilar against the game spread makes the most sense.
That being said, betting on Merida Aguilar +4.5 games is the best bet you can make.
Value bet/ the best odds: Merida Aguilar +4.5 games at 1.70 @10bet
Tallon Griekspoor – Matteo Arnaldi: 12:30 EST
H2H: 0-1
This ATP Montreal match is another hard one to predict. Tallon Griekspoor just shocked Alexander Zverev, knocking him out of the tournament and creating chaos in the bracket. Matteo Arnaldi made the semifinals of Roland-Garros, easily his biggest achievement as a pro tennis player. Injuries and overall health have been challenging for him since then. Is Arnaldi healthy enough to endure the grind of the tour after his deep run in Paris? There’s a lot to think about here.
Best Bet to Make
Parlay/hedge options: Griekspoor moneyline at 1.68 at @pinnacle, Arnaldi +1.5 sets at 1.50 at @1xbet
Confidence level on a scale of 1-10: 1 – you should not bet on this match.
Trusting Tallon Griekspoor on the moneyline in this ATP Montreal match or just about any match is a risk. Griekspoor is an inconsistent, enigmatic player who has a lot of potential but doesn’t fulfill it most of the time. Arnaldi has accomplished more this year but is not playing on clay, his favorite surface, and faces constant doubts about his fitness. It’s a terrible match to bet on. If you have to bet on anything, over 2.5 sets, basically expecting a close match, makes the most sense.
That being said, betting on over 2.5 sets is the best bet you can make
Value bet/ the best odds: over 2.5 sets at 2.25 @betsson
Zizou Bergs – Ben Shelton: 14:00 EST
H2H: 0-1
This ATP Montreal match carries a lot of drama. Ben Shelton has had a bad 2026 season. He has done very little over the past several months. He has not shown up in the bigger tournaments. Zizou Bergs is the kind of player Shelton should regularly defeat, but Shelton has not been as consistent this season as he would hope or expect. Shelton is a very ordinary 9-5 on hardcourts this year. He does not have 10 wins on any surface, a reflection of how mediocre he has been. Is Shelton ready to play better, or will he remain essentially stuck?
Best Bet to Make
Parlay/hedge options: Shelton moneyline at 1.40 at @pinnacle, Shelton -2.5 games at 1.63 at @1xbet
Confidence level on a scale of 1-10: 1 – You should not bet on this match.
This is just not a good ATP Montreal match to bet on. Shelton is obviously the better player overall, but he isn’t playing great tennis right now and is simply not trustworthy. If you insist on a bet, Bergs against the set spread is logical, since three of Shelton’s last four matches have gone three sets.
That being said, betting on Bergs +1.5 sets is the best bet you can make.
Value bet/ the best odds: Bergs +1.5 sets at 1.83 @unibet
Main Photo Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images
