Australia
Exams: 9, W-L-D: 7-2-0, Pct 77.78
Remaining collection: vs Ban (h), SA (a), NZ (h), Ind (a) (13 Exams)
Australia stay on prime of the WTC desk regardless of the Darwin defeat, however their path to the ultimate immediately would not look so simple, particularly given the great method of their defeat, and the robust challenges that lie forward for them. To get to 60% they want 75 extra factors, which they will obtain with six wins and a draw of their remaining 13 Exams. That also seems to be a snug ask, however these 13 Exams embrace 5 in India early subsequent yr – a rustic the place they’ve solely received two of their final 12 Exams – and three in South Africa. Seven wins will take them to 63.63, whereas eight wins and 5 losses will depart them on 68.18. (All calculations assume they are not docked any factors.)
South Africa
Exams: 4, W-L-D: 3-1-0, Pct 75.00
Remaining collection: vs Aus (h), Ban (h), Eng (h), SL (a) (10 Exams)
South Africa’s three away collection this cycle are all within the subcontinent – in Pakistan, India and Sri Lanka – and so they’ve completed exceptionally effectively in that examination to this point, drawing 1-1 in Pakistan and stunning India 2-0. Which means they’ve the luxurious of taking part in eight of their 10 remaining Exams at residence, although three of these are towards table-toppers Australia.
To get to 60%, South Africa want 65 extra factors, which they will get with 5 wins and a few attracts. Six wins and 4 losses of their remaining matches will take them to 64.28%, whereas a 7-3 output will imply 71.43, and near-certain qualification.
New Zealand
Exams: 6, W-L-D: 4-1-1, Pct 72.22
Remaining collection: vs Ind (h), Aus (a), SL (h), Pak (a) (10 Exams)
New Zealand are presently sitting fairly after collection wins towards West Indies (residence) and England (away), however amongst their 10 remaining matches is a tricky four-Check examination in Australia. From the remaining 120 factors on supply, they’re going to want 64 to realize 60%, which they will get with 5 wins and a draw. 4 of these victories may come of their residence season, in the event that they win all Exams towards India and Sri Lanka. For a spot within the closing, although, they’re going to most likely want extra than simply residence success: with six wins and three losses they’re going to end on 64.58%, whereas seven wins and three losses will depart them on 70.83%.
Bangladesh
Exams: 5, W-L-D: 3-1-1, Pct 66.67
Remaining collection: vs Aus (a), WI (h), SA (a), Eng (h) (7 Exams)
Bangladesh’s beautiful win in Darwin retains them firmly in competition for a potential top-two end on this cycle. To get to 60%, they want 47 extra factors – wins in every of their 4 remaining residence Exams, towards West Indies and England, will get them there. In the event that they win another Check other than these 4, their proportion will shoot as much as 69.44, which is able to give them a good chance of qualification. The important thing, although, shall be to make sure they maximise the returns from their residence matches.
India
Exams: 10, W-L-D: 5-4-1, Pct 53.33
Remaining collection: vs SL (a), NZ (a), Aus (h) (8 Exams)
The win in Galle has lifted India’s proportion to 53.33 (from 48.15 earlier than the Check), however they nonetheless have a lot work to do to have a shot on the closing. With eight matches to go, India want 66 extra factors to get to 60%. They will obtain that with 5 wins and two attracts (68 factors), or six wins (72). Within the final cycle, the finalists completed with 69.44 (South Africa) and 67.54% (Australia). Six wins and two losses will take India to 62.96%, whereas seven wins and a loss will see them end on 68.52%, assuming they are not docked any penalty factors.
Of the eight Exams left for India on this cycle, seven are towards groups that are presently within the prime three – two away Exams towards third-placed New Zealand, and 5 at residence towards toppers Australia. Thus, regardless of the encouraging lead to Galle, there’s nonetheless little or no margin for error by means of the remainder of their marketing campaign.
Sri Lanka
Exams: 5, W-L-D: 1-2-2, Pct 33.33
Remaining collection: vs Ind (h), Pak (a), NZ (a), SA (h) (7 Exams)
With solely 20 factors within the bag after 5 Exams, Sri Lanka have left themselves with loads to do within the second half of the cycle. In seven remaining Exams, they want 67 factors to the touch 60%, which suggests they want 5 wins and two attracts, or six wins. Six wins and a loss will take them to 63.89%, whereas wins in all seven Exams will raise them to 72.22. To begin with, although, they’re going to must do a lot within the second Check of the continuing collection towards India.
England
Exams: 13, W-L-D: 4-8-1, Pct 24.36
Remaining collection: vs Pak (h), SA (a), Ban (a) (8 Exams)
As if a 4-8 win-loss document wasn’t dangerous sufficient, England have additionally been horribly tardy with over-rates on this WTC cycle, being docked 14 factors to this point. Which means 52 factors from 4 wins and a draw has been diminished to 38. Even when they win every of their eight remaining Exams with out shedding additional penalty factors, they’re going to solely end on 53.17%, which is extremely unlikely to be sufficient for a spot within the closing.
Pakistan
Exams: 6, W-L-D: 2-4-0, Pct 22.22
Remaining collection: vs Eng (a), SL (h), NZ (h) (7 Exams)
With two wins and 4 losses Pakistan have had a poor marketing campaign to this point, additional compounded by eight penalty factors. In the event that they win all seven remaining Exams, they’re going to end on 64.1%. Six wins and a draw will depart them on 58.97, whereas six wins and a loss will drop the proportion additional to 56.41.
West Indies
Exams: 12, W-L-D: 2-8-2, Pct 20.83
Remaining collection: vs Ban (a) (2 Exams)
With simply two Exams remaining, the utmost that West Indies can end on is 32.14%.
S Rajesh is stats editor of Cricinfo. @rajeshstats
