Ukraine’s intelligence officers have claimed that Russia’s Zircon (Tsirkon) missile just isn’t a sustained-hypersonic cruise missile, which Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Kremlin have repeatedly described as “invincible”
The Protection Intelligence of Ukraine (DIU) revealed an in depth technical evaluation of the Zircon missile on 31 August. The bundle consists of an interactive 3D mannequin of the missile, together with info on its parts, producers, and foreign-origin elements recovered from the particles.
Initially developed as a sea-launched anti-ship weapon for nuclear submarines and Mission 22350 frigates geared up with 3S14 vertical launchers, the Zircon has been tailored for land-based Bastion coastal techniques. In reality, Moscow has intensified the usage of this missile, together with the Kinzhal and different missiles, to exploit gaps in Ukraine’s air protection protection and to strike high-value targets inside Ukrainian cities.
Russia has claimed that the Zircon is a hypersonic missile able to reaching speeds of Mach 8–9 with a variety of as much as 1,000 kilometers, and is designed for each anti-ship and land-attack missions.
Positioning the missile as an invincible weapon that would not be intercepted by Western air defenses, Russia maintains that Zircon’s excessive velocity is designed to squeeze defenders’ response occasions and complicate interception in contrast with standard subsonic or supersonic cruise missiles.
Russian analysts have repeatedly claimed that the missile’s extraordinary velocity would make it an efficient weapon in opposition to bigger warships, comparable to plane carriers. Such confidence within the Zircon is clear as Russia is arming main floor vessels and submarines with 3M22 Zircon missiles.
It’s pertinent to spotlight that the new DIU claims are in stark distinction to earlier Ukrainian assessments—particularly after the primary confirmed makes use of and intercepts in early 2024—which handled the 3M22 Zircon as a real hypersonic missile powered by a ramjet or scramjet.
The Kyiv Scientific Analysis Institute of Forensic Experience (KNDISE) had earlier reported that the missile used a jet engine quite than a solid-fuel rocket motor.
On the time, Ukrainian retailers claimed that Russia had developed a hypersonic ramjet engine for the Zircon, which might enable sustained hypersonic speeds reported to cruise round Mach 5.5, with larger peaks, throughout the midcourse at excessive altitude, distinguishing it from purely ballistic techniques just like the Kinzhal, which solely briefly reaches excessive speeds on a solid-fuel rocket.
Ukrainian analysts described it as a hypersonic cruise-type missile with larger sustained velocity than Russia’s air-launched hypersonic missile, Kinzhal.
Zircon is Hype, Not Hypersonic?
The DIU assessed that the Zircon just isn’t a “hypersonic cruise missile” as Russia has beforehand said, and may very well be finest categorised as a quasi-ballistic missile.
The DIU describes the missile as a two-stage design that follows a high-altitude trajectory with components of quasi-ballistic or boost-glide habits, quite than sustained powered cruise.
Hypersonic missiles journey at speeds of 5 or extra occasions the velocity of sound and are extremely maneuverable in flight, making them tough to intercept.
The Ukrainian intelligence company claims that the missile is slower than beforehand thought and has a smaller warhead than Russia’s S8000 Banderol cruise missile.
In keeping with the DIU, the warhead designated 3G22, manufactured by GosNIImash/GOSNIIMASH, weighs roughly 120 kilograms. The company said that that is extraordinarily low for what’s described as Russia’s most costly strike missile, emphasizing that even the smaller Banderol cruise missile carries a 150-kilogram warhead.
The missile employs a mixed steering system with two main phases: an inertial navigation system throughout the midcourse, adopted by an lively radar seeker within the terminal part, the DIU said. Moreover, the DIU states that the most recorded velocity doesn’t exceed Mach 6.8 — versus Russian claims of Mach 8-9 —and that this velocity just isn’t sustained all through the flight.
The DIU claims that onboard computation and management are dealt with by the Baget-83 digital computing system, a module customary throughout most Russian ballistic missiles. In the meantime, electro-hydraulic steering actuators and deployable aerodynamic management surfaces within the tail part handle maneuvering.
One of many DIU’s most important claims considerations Zircon’s propulsion.
Russia has maintained that the Zircon has an air-breathing propulsion system that burns liquid propellant and might preserve hypersonic flight.
In distinction, the DIU states that the Zircon missile’s propulsion system makes use of solid-fuel rocket motors, not a scramjet or a liquid-fuel ramjet. It states that each the booster and sustainer levels use strong propellant — after launch from a container on a ship or coastal system, the booster motor ignites to speed up the missile to the required altitude and velocity. It then separates, permitting the primary sustainer motor, recognized because the 3L2211 and manufactured by NPO Iskra, to take over.
This immediately contradicts years of Russian claims involving a scramjet engine and high-energy liquid gas, comparable to “decylin.”
The publicly obtainable photos and movies of the missile don’t clearly present an air consumption, which a scramjet- or ramjet-powered missile wants to attract in atmospheric oxygen. Furthermore, no Russian patent associated to the missile’s removable launch cap reveals a transparent consumption association.
The Scientific Analysis Institute of Forensic Experience in Ukraine examined a round steel construction believed to be a element of a solid-propellant rocket motor. The {hardware} seems linked to the Zircon’s second stage quite than solely to its launch booster—the factor a real hypersonic cruise missile would use to achieve working velocity. This factors to a two-stage design during which every stage depends on a solid-propellant rocket motor.
Nonetheless, the findings don’t show past cheap doubt that the missile lacks an air-breathing engine.
When requested in regards to the Ukrainian claims that Zircon is a ballistic missile or a cruise missile as earlier claimed by Russia, Indian Air Pressure (IAF) knowledgeable Squadron Chief Vijainder Okay. Thakur informed EurAsian Instances, “A ballistic missile flies a predictable ballistic trajectory. A cruise missile follows a much less predictable flat trajectory that retains it beneath adversary radar horizon for many of its flight. The Zircon is a cruise missile, as indicated by its trajectory traits.”
Thakur says, “There are some doubts about whether or not the Zircon is rocket-powered or scramjet-powered. The doubts stem from reviews stating that it makes use of solid-propellant engines for each its enhance & cruise phases. The doubts are fueled by the truth that most individuals don’t readily respect that each a rocket motor and a scramjet engine can use strong propellants. The Zircon is a cruise missile.”
Thakur nonetheless lessons Zircon as a cruise missile and notes that strong propellant doesn’t robotically rule out a scramjet. That could be a minority studying in opposition to the 2026 file: no clear consumption, two named strong motors, Baget-83, high-altitude profile. A low-level cruise missile stays beneath the radar horizon. Zircon, as described by each Moscow and Kyiv, doesn’t.
Notably, some open-source intelligence analysts have referred to as consideration to the pictures of the Zircon’s radar seeker revealed by the DIU.
The presence of a devoted lively radar seeker could point out that the Zircon doesn’t rely solely on pre-programmed inertial or satellite tv for pc steering, as is frequent on pure ballistic missiles. It has a real terminal homing functionality designed for precision engagement of shifting targets. This helps its authentic anti-ship mission whereas additionally permitting secondary use in opposition to land targets, which is how Russia has employed it in Ukraine.
The DIU additionally recognized 70 firms that both provided parts for the missile or have been concerned in its manufacturing. In keeping with the GUR report, these embrace a TGA2704 amplifier, initially related to TriQuint Semiconductor (now a part of Qorvo), and an Altera Cyclone II EP2C5T144I8N field-programmable gate array (FPGA), from Altera Company (now a part of Intel), each listed as originating in america. This reveals that Russia’s improvement of superior weapons stays linked to world provide traces.
Notably, Russia has not refuted Ukrainian claims on the time of penning this report, nevertheless it continues to make use of Zircon whereas emphasizing that it’s a formidable hypersonic weapon.
The DIU evaluation doesn’t show each element past doubt, however the proof now factors in a single route. No clear air consumption, solid-fuel booster and sustainer, a pc suite typical of Russian ballistic techniques, and a high-altitude profile all level away from a real air-breathing hypersonic cruise missile.
In a nutshell, Russia calls the Zircon a hypersonic missile and has not responded to Ukrainian claims up to now. In keeping with reviews from the Ukrainian Air Pressure and army analysts, Zircons are extra interceptable than the “invincible” label, and Ukraine has introduced many down. The constraint is now not the physics. It’s what number of PAC-3 MSE rounds are left.
