Europe is quickly working out of missile-defense interceptors, whilst Ukraine’s Patriot SAM launchers stand nearly empty, whereas Russia launches an nearly every day barrage of ballistic missiles to benefit from this crucial vulnerability.
Kyiv desperately needs a license to fabricate Patriot interceptors domestically, however the missile’s producers, Lockheed Martin and Raytheon, are reportedly reluctant to share the know-how with Ukraine.
In the meantime, the US navy has burned by means of practically four-fifths of its THAAD missile stock in comparison with pre-war numbers and roughly half of its Patriot interceptors because the begin of the Iran warfare.
The US rapidly recognized the vulnerability. In April, the Pentagon’s Munitions Acceleration Council (MAC) identified 12 legacy and two “emerging” munitions as a part of its bold plan to ramp up manufacturing and ink a sequence of agreements with key distributors to make sure value effectivity whereas sustaining manufacturing stability, in keeping with fiscal 2027 price range paperwork.
The 12 legacy munitions embody Patriot Superior Functionality-3 (PAC-3) Missile Phase Enhancement interceptors, Terminal Excessive Altitude Air Protection (THAAD) interceptors, Customary Missile-3 IIA, SM-6, and SM-3 Block IB interceptors.
Earlier this month, to spice up manufacturing of those crucial missile interceptors, the US signed a greater than US$3 billion deal with Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman to ramp up manufacturing of Patriot and THAAD interceptor elements; nevertheless, analysts warn that will probably be years earlier than Washington reaches its pre-Battle stock ranges.
For perspective, Lockheed Martin produced solely 620 Patriot missile interceptors in 2025.
Equally, final yr, a White Paper for ‘European Defense and the Rearm Europe Plan – Readiness 2030‘ recognized air and missile protection as one of many seven crucial functionality areas requiring pressing motion to shut present gaps.
To fulfill pressing wants, European governments have spent closely, reportedly round US$50 billion since 2022, totally on US programs.
Nonetheless, the expectation that the US will proceed to satisfy all of Europe’s missile protection wants could show more and more unrealistic, particularly in gentle of the Iran Battle, when the US is itself fighting traditionally low inventories.
With Washington’s long-term strategic focus fastened on the Indo-Pacific and its consideration at present absorbed by the Center East, Europe has grow to be, at finest, a tertiary safety curiosity.
With Washington’s long-term strategic focus fastened on the Indo-Pacific and its consideration at present absorbed by the Center East, Europe has grow to be, at finest, a tertiary safety curiosity.
Even when manufacturing lastly picks up, the US is prone to prioritize first its personal wants after which the Gulf international locations. Europe might be close to the top of the queue.
In the meantime, if China opens a brand new entrance with Taiwan within the close to future, the stress on US provide chains will improve manifold.
At a time when some critics concern that Russia might invade one other Japanese European nation by 2028, Europe faces a crucial query: Does it have the mandatory missile-defense stock to neutralize Russian drones and missiles—and if the US can’t meet Europe’s wants, the place else can it flip?
Based on a current analysis paper by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), South Korea is properly positioned to satisfy some European missile-defense wants.
European Missile Protection Structure
Europe has relied primarily on the US-made Patriot system for its air protection.
Germany has bought the Arrow 3 long-range air-defense system, developed by Israel Aerospace Industries, with Boeing as a co-developer and co-producer, however this represents solely a small fraction of the air- and missile-defense capability Europe wants.
The Nationwide Superior Floor-to-Air Missile System (NASAMS), collectively developed by Norway and the US, is efficient in opposition to cruise missiles, plane, and lots of unmanned aerial programs, however not ballistic missiles.
Likewise, Germany’s IRIS-T SLM system is optimized for air protection in opposition to cruise missiles and unmanned programs quite than high-end ballistic threats.
Europe has a substitute for Patriot – the SAMP/T surface-to-air missile system, developed by the Franco-Italian Eurosam consortium (MBDA and Thales). The system, nevertheless, has secured far fewer gross sales than its US competitor, and its manufacturing capability stays constrained.
Can South Korea Assist?
Based on the paper, Europe’s urgent want for air protection might current South Korea with additional alternatives to safe gross sales on the continent.
Though South Korea has not but absolutely entered Europe’s missile-defense market, it has already demonstrated its capability to ship main typical programs rapidly, supplying tanks, howitzers, and plane to Poland whereas additionally securing contracts with Romania and Norway for K9 howitzers and K10 ammunition resupply autos, and with Norway and Estonia for Chunmoo multiple-launch rocket programs.
Based on a 2026 SIPRI report, South Korea was the second-largest provider of main arms to NATO international locations in Europe throughout 2021–25, behind solely the US.
Final month, the Eurasian Times reported that South Korea and NATO have agreed to open negotiations on a primary procurement settlement that may enable Korean protection corporations to take part in NATO’s joint procurement market, estimated at 15 trillion received (US$9.9 billion) yearly.
South Korea’s Cheongung-II medium-range surface-to-air missile system, collectively produced by LIG Nex1, Hanwha Techniques and Hanwha Aerospace, has had a optimistic debut within the Center East.
South Korea constructed the Cheongung-II to cease North Korean missiles. Nonetheless, the system is now stopping Iranian missiles and, in doing so, has turned Seoul into some of the sought-after protection suppliers on the planet.
The UAE ordered the Cheongung-II in 2022. Two programs have been deployed in early 2026, shortly earlier than the outbreak of the Iran battle, and reportedly achieved an interception success price exceeding 96%, as EurAsian Occasions reported at the moment.
It was a fight debut that rivaled, and in some circumstances exceeded, the efficiency of the US Patriot anti-missile system, analysts mentioned.
The third one was delivered to the UAE on an expedited, emergency foundation. In the meantime, extra orders from Saudi Arabia and Iraq, positioned in 2024, stay pending.
One benefit of South Korea’s programs arguably lies of their excessive diploma of home manufacturing, estimated at round 95%, which reduces vulnerability to supply-chain disruptions and export restrictions whereas serving to to maintain manufacturing prices low.
One other benefit is value – the South Korean Cheongung-II prices practically one-third of the Patriot system. Due to this fact, in the price of one Patriot battery, a rustic can area three Cheongung-II batteries.
Moreover, South Korea’s L-SAM system, typically described as a Korean equal to THAAD, might additional improve its attraction as a provider of higher-tier missile-defense capabilities as soon as the system is absolutely prepared for deployment, anticipated by 2028.
Nonetheless, issues stay about whether or not Seoul can enhance manufacturing to satisfy extra demand from European international locations.
Notably, Hanwha is increasing manufacturing in Europe, together with constructing new amenities in Poland and Romania. Though these crops will not be supposed for missile-interceptor manufacturing, they might be tailored for that objective, thereby considerably rising output and shortening supply timelines for European clients.
Nonetheless, the European Union’s Safety Motion for Europe (SAFE) initiative, adopted in Might 2025, might restrict South Korea’s function in assembly European air protection wants.
This system allocates €150 billion (US$175 billion) to strengthen the continent’s defense-industrial base. To qualify for a mortgage underneath this initiative, tasks should meet a requirement that at the very least 65% of the product is produced throughout the EU, successfully prioritizing home manufacturing.
South Korea’s exclusion from SAFE limits the attractiveness of its programs for EU-funded procurement.
At a time when Europe desperately wants to reinforce its air protection structure, South Korean programs might fill within the hole.
- Sumit Ahlawat has over a decade of expertise in information media. He has labored with Press Belief of India, Occasions Now, Zee Information, Financial Occasions, and Microsoft Information. He holds a Grasp’s Diploma in Worldwide Media and Trendy Historical past from the College of Sheffield, UK.
- He might be reached at ahlawat.sumit85 (at) gmail.com
