Syria and Russia have spent the previous 18 months negotiating the destiny of Moscow’s navy presence in Syria following the autumn of the Bashar al-Assad regime in December 2024.
On Sunday, at the very least a part of that query appeared to be settled after the post-Assad authorities in Damascus announced a memorandum of understanding concerning Moscow’s Hmeimim airbase and Tartus naval base.
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Russia was a significant Assad ally throughout Syria’s close to 14-year civil struggle which started with Arab Spring protests in 2011 and ended when the present President, Ahmed al-Sharaa, led a lightning strike on Damascus and toppled the regime. Assad fled to Russia the place he and his household have been granted asylum.
Underneath the brand new accord, Syria will take management of civilian amenities on the Hmeimim airbase and the industrial part of Tartus port.
The navy amenities will probably be remodeled into joint Russian-Syrian coaching and qualification centres, with the transition anticipated to be accomplished inside three months. Moscow has but to touch upon the deal.
It marks a big shift from the function each bases as soon as performed in service of al-Assad in the course of the civil struggle which killed a whole bunch of hundreds of Syrians and displaced tens of millions.
Nonetheless, analysts say it may signify one thing extra pragmatic, with Damascus reclaiming higher sovereignty over strategically essential amenities whereas Moscow preserves a foothold and avoids being pushed fully out of a rustic through which it has invested closely for many years.
“The settlement between Russia and the Syrian authorities signifies that each nations want one another,” Alexey Muraviev, senior analysis fellow in defence and strategic research at Edith Cowan College in Western Australia, advised Al Jazeera, including that Damascus is probably going “not concerned about terminating its extended relationship with Russia”.
Moscow was a key Assad ally throughout Syria’s civil struggle, serving to to maintain the previous chief in energy by offering very important navy help.
The Russian navy intervention in 2015 helped to show the tide of the struggle in favour of the al-Assad-led authorities. Hmeimim turned the centre of Russian air operations, whereas Tartus offered Moscow with its principal naval foothold within the Mediterranean.
Nonetheless, Russia didn’t intervene in the course of the main advance in the direction of Damascus that led to al-Assad’s overthrow in December 2024.
Following Assad’s ousting, Russian troops nonetheless in Syria regularly left the nation apart from these stationed on the two bases.
The Syrian overseas ministry mentioned in a press release that the brand new preparations for the bases signify a “reorganising of the Russian presence” alongside Syria’s coast.
“This transfer marks essentially the most vital growth since negotiations started roughly a 12 months and a half in the past, paving the best way for a brand new part in Syrian-Russian relations,” the assertion learn.
‘No everlasting enemies, solely everlasting pursuits’
In accordance with political analyst Ruslan Trad, a non-resident fellow on the Atlantic Council, Damascus has already moved on from Russia’s function within the struggle.
“Syrian President Ahmed Al-Sharaa’s authorities fought al-Assad’s Russian-backed forces for years, but inside weeks of taking energy, it started quiet negotiations to maintain Moscow current somewhat than expel it,” Trad advised Al Jazeera.
“This confirms the basic realist maxim that in politics there are not any everlasting enemies, solely everlasting pursuits.”
In the identical vein through which al-Sharaa has gone in efforts to strike cordial relations with Western powers such because the US – which bestowed him with the standing of Specifically Designated International Terrorist in Might 2013 in the course of the civil struggle – Trad mentioned the post-al-Assad authorities has possible calculated that punishing Russia for its wartime function would value greater than it was value.
“Moscow controls Bashar al-Assad’s asylum, holds Syrian debt and reconstruction contracts, provides subsidised oil and grain and stays a veto-wielding Safety Council energy that shielded Sharaa’s personal previous terrorism designation,” he added.
Aron Lund, a fellow at Century Worldwide, mentioned there may be “a lot of navy and civilian expertise” in Syria that comes from Russia and the previous Soviet Union.
“There’s an outdated legacy of navy, administrative and technical cooperation between Damascus and Moscow. It could be very painful for Syria to interrupt that relationship fully,” he advised Al Jazeera.
“It’s transactional pragmatism on each side,” he advised Al Jazeera. “Al-Sharaa’s authorities, chronically cash-strapped and needing wheat, power and technical help, has visited Putin twice in Moscow since taking energy.”
“The leaders of each Syria and Russia have confirmed themselves to be very versatile and pragmatic.” Lund mentioned.
That’s mirrored in the truth that the 2 sides started assembly and negotiating even earlier than the toppling of the al-Assad regime was full, he added.
“They started to fulfill just some weeks after Assad’s ouster. In observe, they have been assembly and negotiating simply weeks after Russian jets bombed al-Sharaa’s fighters. In actual fact, the primary agreements have been made even earlier than Assad fell, in the course of the offensive that toppled his regime,” he mentioned.
Sovereign gatekeeper, not ‘Moscow consumer’
To this finish, Al-Sharaa’s authorities, “chronically cash-strapped and needing wheat, power and technical help”, says Trad, has visited Putin twice in Moscow since taking energy.
The Syrian president has taken pains to publicly acknowledge Russia’s function “in stabilising the state of affairs, not solely in Syria but in addition within the area”.
Putin has welcomed al-Sharaa and signalled help for Syria’s territorial integrity.
Moscow, Trad mentioned, wanted to protect its “solely Mediterranean navy platform for projecting energy into Africa and the jap Mediterranean”, whereas providing “debt aid, financial cooperation and UN cowl on terrorism designations in alternate”.
“So sure, each side nonetheless want one another, simply on renegotiated phrases that mirror Syria’s new leverage as sovereign gatekeeper somewhat than as Moscow’s consumer,” he added.
Resisting or balancing Western meddling?
For the reason that fall of al-Assad, Western and regional actors have sought to make use of Syria’s political transition to curb Russian affect, mentioned Muraviev.
“Clearly, there was an try by the US and, to some extent, maybe, the Israelis to push the brand new Syrian regime to terminate Russia’s presence in Syria,” he mentioned.
“However … an settlement signifies that the Syrian authorities has retained an curiosity, and withstood the stress from different events, as a result of they clearly see the dividends of sustaining the connection with Russia.”
The extended negotiations between Damascus and Moscow have been themselves telling, he mentioned.
“The truth that these negotiations have been held for a few 12 months and a half meant that each side have been concerned about not seeing these negotiations collapse,” he added.
However, Muraviev confused that maintaining Russia within the image doesn’t imply Syria will shut off avenues to different powers: “The brand new authorities can be open to develop strategic hyperlinks with the US, Turkey, even working with Israel,” he mentioned.
“However they might in all probability wish to preserve a multi-vectoral engagement … and having Russia within the equation will assist them to make use of it as even perhaps a bargaining chip of their energy recreation with different main powers.”
Lund famous that negotiations have been “very discreet”, maybe as a result of Russia and Syria seem to have been involved that “speaking an excessive amount of concerning the bases” may set off US and European calls for for his or her closure.
“Al-Assad’s fall was a significant blow to Russia, however that has already occurred. This settlement is concerning the post-Assad future, and it may very well be constructive or adverse for Russia. We will see whether or not the brand new association will constrain Russia much more, or, on the contrary, whether or not this deal will formalise and reactivate Russia’s navy presence.”
