- US intelligence predicted Hormuz closure, regional retaliation.
- Six-week Iran marketing campaign turns into six-month stalemate.
- Mojtaba Khamenei stays in energy as IRGC tightens grip.
- US shifts from strikes to blockade, sanctions.
Days earlier than initiating a serious army marketing campaign towards Iran on February 28, US President Donald Trump obtained express warnings from the US intelligence neighborhood that focusing on Iran’s prime management would fail to trigger a regime collapse and as a substitute set off extreme regional escalation, in accordance to an intensive investigation by The Wall Road Journal.
Throughout essential Oval Workplace deliberations, key nationwide safety officers introduced assessments indicating that eliminating Supreme Chief Ali Khamenei would produce the other of the administration’s supposed end result.
Then-Director of Nationwide Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard briefed the US President immediately, stating that focusing on Iran’s supreme chief would seemingly empower an much more unyielding hardline authorities.
Warnings of hardline escalation
In keeping with sources acquainted with the high-level briefings who spoke to The Wall Road Journal, US intelligence warned {that a} successor regime in Tehran would view nuclear functionality as its final “insurance coverage coverage” towards future international assaults.
Officers cautioned {that a} new management construction would instantly act to dam the Strait of Hormuz and order direct strikes towards US forces and bases stationed throughout the Center East.
Concurrently, senior Pentagon leaders raised alarms relating to anticipated American casualties and the fast pressure on precision-guided munitions stockpiles.
Public warnings from Iranian officers had lengthy asserted that any direct assault would immediate a direct shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, threatening international vitality routes.
Worldwide analysts equally cautioned {that a} large-scale army offensive would compel Tehran to cross the nuclear threshold to safe regime survival.
Regardless of these inside and exterior warnings, US President Trump moved ahead with the operation, persuaded by advisors who argued that the Iranian authorities was at an unprecedented low level and backed by offensive plans introduced by Protection Secretary Pete Hegseth and army commanders.
Operational actuality
Six months after the marketing campaign started, the forecasts outlined by intelligence businesses have largely materialized, The Wall Road Journal reported.
Whereas Ali Khamenei was killed by ‘Israeli’ forces early within the battle, the federal government didn’t collapse. As a substitute, his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, assumed energy, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) consolidating management, resisting capitulation, and persevering with to focus on business delivery within the Strait of Hormuz.
Fairly than concluding inside six weeks, the battle has stretched into its sixth month.
US forces have suffered 18 deaths and 756 wounded, together with broken regional bases, depleted army stockpiles, and extreme disruption to international vitality markets, whereas Iranian casualties are estimated at roughly 3,000.
Following the breakdown of successive non permanent ceasefires, US President Trump has shifted away from direct offensive strikes towards an prolonged naval blockade and sweeping sanctions geared toward crippling Iran economically.
