Mumbai could be swallowed by the sea. BMC begins a fresh risk check | Mumbai News

A senior civic official aware about the evaluation mentioned the brand new research was vital given the numerous adjustments alongside Mumbai’s shoreline over the previous 5 years.

“During the last 5 years, Mumbai’s shoreline has seen a large transformation. The Coastal Highway has come up alongside the western seafront, with greater than 100 hectares of the Arabian Sea reclaimed. On the jap facet, salt pan lands have been recognized for improvement. There has additionally been a change within the general land-use sample. Subsequently, a recent threat evaluation was wanted,” the official mentioned.

The brand new climate-risk evaluation, at the moment underway, will map susceptible stretches alongside Mumbai’s 149-km shoreline. (Made utilizing ChatGPT)

In contrast to the UN evaluation, which appears at sea-level rise at a world scale, the BMC research will focus particularly on Mumbai. It’ll look at native components contributing to coastal vulnerability, mission future sea-level rise and establish populations residing in areas adjoining the shoreline that might be in danger.

The BMC’s first Mumbai Local weather Motion Plan (MCAP), launched in 2022, had recognized coastal flooding, rising air pollution, lack of inexperienced cowl and growing city warmth as key local weather dangers dealing with the town. It had additionally projected that 80 per cent of Mumbai’s island metropolis might be submerged by 2050.

Scientists have linked the rise in sea ranges to world warming and growing sea floor temperatures (SST). The 2022 MCAP famous a gentle enhance in SST within the Arabian Sea over twenty years.

“Whereas the evaluation of annual imply SST between 2003 and 2020 reveals an absence of a statistically important pattern in sea stage variations, a slight regular enhance of 0.025°C per 12 months for daytime SST and 0.019°C per 12 months for nighttime SST has been noticed,” the report acknowledged.

Raghu Murtugudde, emeritus professor on the College of Maryland and visiting professor at IIT Bombay, mentioned warming throughout Europe and West Asia was additionally contributing to increased temperatures within the Arabian Sea.

“Over the previous few years, we’ve got seen rainfall patterns changing into extra erratic, with Mumbai recording above-normal rainfall. Heavy rainfall and excessive tidal waves are working as a mixed issue resulting in inundation of Mumbai, posing a heavy threat to folks residing within the island metropolis,” he mentioned.

Roxy Mathew Koll, oceanographer and local weather scientist on the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), mentioned Mumbai’s geography itself made it significantly susceptible.

“Fast improvement, concretisation and land-use adjustments shrink floodplains and congest rivers. The Bandra Kurla Complicated was constructed on mangrove land, whereas the Mithi River was lowered to a nallah on account of roads and encroachment. Mumbai floods are extra of a administration downside on account of unplanned improvement reasonably than a local weather change downside,” he mentioned.

Koll mentioned defending mangroves and coastal wetlands could be crucial to enhancing Mumbai’s resilience.

“Mangroves and floodplains have historically acted because the lungs of the town, defending it from flood water and robust winds. Defending and increasing these coastal wetlands can considerably improve Mumbai’s resilience to sea-level rise whereas offering protected habitats for biodiversity and marine life,” he mentioned.

The MCAP had recorded important adjustments in Mumbai’s mangrove cowl between 2008 and 2021. Based on the report, 325 hectares of dense mangrove cowl had both turn into sparse or been transformed into intertidal mudflats due to erosion and sedimentation, whereas density had elevated throughout round 305 hectares.