Mecca Agreement | A new triple alliance in West Asia

By the point Abdullah bin Saud succeeded his father as Emir of Diriyah (the primary Saudi state) in 1814, Ottoman forces, underneath the command of Muhammad Ali Pasha, had already launched their army marketing campaign in opposition to the al-Saud reign. The Ottomans sought to destroy the emirate and convey the Arabian Peninsula again underneath their management. They entered Hejaz by the ocean after which marched into the guts of Nejd. In 1818, Ibrahim Pasha, Muhammad Ali’s son, reached Diriyah, the capital of the Emirate, and laid siege to the town till it surrendered. Abdullah, his three sons and two supporters have been captured and brought to Cairo, earlier than being transferred to Constantinople, the place Sultan Mahmud II rejected a request for a pardon. In Could 1819, the final Emir of the primary Saudi state, alongside together with his sons and supporters, was beheaded in a sq. close to Hagia Sophia.

The Ottoman invasion, nonetheless, didn’t forestall the Saudis from rebuilding the state the Pashas had destroyed. They established the second Saudi state later within the nineteenth century and, after its defeat, based a 3rd within the early twentieth century. The third state, with British help, expanded its authority throughout a lot of the Arabian Peninsula, finally giving rise to trendy Saudi Arabia. The Ottoman Empire collapsed after the First World Battle, with the Republic of Turkey rising as its successor. After the Second World Battle, each Turkiye and Saudi Arabia grew to become shut allies of the U.S., however relations between the 2 remained strained. Their historic rivalry and contest for affect in West Asia stored them at odds.

Tensions deepened after Turkiye took an more and more Islamist flip underneath Recep Tayyip Erdogan within the twenty first century. When Turkiye supported the Arab Spring protests of 2010-2011, Saudi Arabia seen the uprisings as a menace to political stability. Relations deteriorated additional after Jamal Khashoggi, a Saudi dissident, was killed contained in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul in 2018. The dominion and the republic additionally discovered themselves on opposing sides in a number of regional conflicts, most notably in Libya.

However this rivalry has begun to soften away in recent times, as West Asia has witnessed a collection of balance-shifting developments. On August 7, 2026, Saudi Arabia and Turkiye turned a web page of their lengthy and sometimes fraught relationship by formally entering into a trilateral defence agreement with Pakistan. Beneath the Mecca Settlement, signed within the Saudi holy metropolis by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Turkish President Erdogan and Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, the three international locations pledged to strengthen “collective defence” and “collective deterrence”, and to deal with an armed assault in opposition to any one in every of them as an assault in opposition to all three.

Looking for strategic depth

A NATO-style collective safety alliance bringing collectively three main Muslim-majority international locations — a nuclear-armed South Asian energy, an oil-rich Persian Gulf monarchy and a NATO ally that straddles West Asia and Europe — is one thing West Asia has not seen earlier than. In keeping with a joint assertion issued by the Pakistani Overseas Ministry, all three international locations had been concerned in negotiations for a 12 months. In September 2025, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia signed a Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement committing themselves to deal with any act of aggression in opposition to one as an act in opposition to each.

The Saudi-Pakistan settlement confirmed each Saudi Arabia’s deepening strategic vulnerability and Pakistan’s growing urge for food to play a bigger safety function in an more and more risky area. Now, with the addition of Turkiye, the alliance is looking for strategic depth and army muscle.

Every member of the alliance brings its personal strengths and vulnerabilities. Pakistan is the Muslim world’s solely nuclear energy, however its financial system is struggling to remain afloat. Saudi Arabia, one of many world’s largest oil exporters, has deep pockets however faces daunting safety challenges, notably from Iran and the Houthis. Turkiye has a quickly increasing army industrial base, together with superior drone-production capabilities, however is nervous about Israel’s rising militarism in its neighbourhood.

Saudi Arabia, a detailed American ally for the reason that late Forties, relied on the U.S. for safety, whereas, in return, promising an uninterrupted circulation of oil. The foundations of this alliance have been shaken in recent times because the U.S., confronted with a rising China in East Asia, started to deprioritise West Asia. When Saudi oil facilities were attacked in 2019 by Iran-aligned Houthis, the U.S. did little in response. This prompted the dominion to discover choices past America’s safety umbrella. In 2023, Saudi Arabia reached a normalisation settlement with Iran, brokered by China. It additionally agreed to a ceasefire with the Houthis (Ansar Allah).

However Saudi Arabia’s safety anxieties solely deepened when Israel started fighting a mini-regional war after the October 7, 2023 Hamas assault. The Saudis, like a number of different international locations within the area, concluded that U.S. safety ensures have been ineffectual in terms of threats from Israel. The Saudi-Pakistan defence pact was introduced in September 2025 weeks after Israel bombed Qatar. After the U.S. and Israel launched the war on Iran on February 28, 2026, Tehran repeatedly attacked all Gulf states, together with Saudi Arabia. This struggle appears to have satisfied Riyadh that the U.S. safety ensures to Arab states weren’t as strong as they was.

Turkiye, however, has lengthy sought to play a bigger safety function in West Asia — the previous fiefdom of Constantinople. It has cultivated robust ties with Qatar and maintains a troop presence there. An alliance with Saudi Arabia would supply Ankara with larger strategic area within the area. Turkiye additionally has its personal safety worries. As an more and more militaristic Israel expands its territory via air strikes and incursions, Ankara believes it ought to put together for potential conflicts sooner or later. Israeli leaders have already publicly warned Turkiye, accusing it of supporting Hamas and different Islamist forces. Though Turkiye is a member of NATO, Ankara has doubts about whether or not the NATO collective safety ensures would maintain within the occasion of a battle with Israel, America’s closest ally within the area. It additionally believes NATO itself is going through severe inside challenges, because the U.S., underneath President Donald Trump, seems much less dedicated to the alliance than it as soon as was.

Pakistan, the third actor, brings to the alliance its hostility with India. In Could 2025, it fought a short aerial struggle with India after the Pahalgam terror attack. As India says it might maintain Pakistan chargeable for terror assaults on its soil, Islamabad can be making an attempt to strengthen its deterrence via counter-alliances.

Shifting sands

The trilateral alliance and its collective safety clause don’t essentially imply that Pakistan would go to struggle with Iran or the Houthis, or that Turkiye would be part of a future India-Pakistan battle. After the Saudi-Pakistan settlement was signed in September 2025, Pakistan clashed a number of occasions with Taliban-ruled Afghanistan, whereas Saudi Arabia got here underneath repeated assaults from Iran and the Houthis. However neither nation intervened militarily on behalf of the opposite. So there’ll at all times be questions concerning the sensible scope of the alliance’s collective defence dedication.

But, the settlement stays important as a result of it brings collectively three main powers in a typical safety framework. Defence partnership and army interoperability amongst them may broaden at a time when an overstretched U.S. is confronting the bounds of its energy within the area. The alliance additionally supplies larger strategic area for Turkiye and Pakistan in West Asia. Different smaller states within the area could possibly be tempted to affix, whereas powers which have uneasy relations with the alliance’s members, together with India, the UAE, Israel and Iran, may search their very own counterbalancing preparations.

West Asia’s safety structure may subsequently endure profound adjustments, accelerating the area’s post-American transition.

Printed – August 09, 2026 04:48 am IST

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