Six months into the warfare on Iran, the most important US oil corporations have posted their largest income since 2022, promoting much less oil at far larger costs. However the battle can be placing their longstanding Gulf investments in danger, exposing the trade’s uneasy stability between wartime good points and mounting geopolitical vulnerability for traders worldwide.
Because the warfare started on February 28, Brent crude has risen about 22 p.c, from $72 to $88 a barrel.
The Strait of Hormuz – by means of which one-fifth of the world’s oil and pure fuel was shipped earlier than the warfare – stays largely closed to business visitors, although Iran and Oman agreed final week on a short lived maritime route. Iran says the strait won’t absolutely reopen till america fulfils its commitments below a lapsed interim peace deal, leaving longer-term safety and administration preparations unresolved.
Within the absence of an enduring decision, the disruption is prone to proceed supporting larger power costs and creating windfalls for producers, regardless of inserting power corporations’ regional belongings and future tasks at higher danger.
Rahul Choudhary, vp of Upstream Analysis at Rystad Power, an impartial power analysis firm, mentioned the battle has already lowered the quantity of oil and fuel US power companies are drawing from the Gulf area.
“Total we count on US corporations’ share of fuel provides [from the region] to fall by round 40 p.c this yr in comparison with final yr [and] the share of oil provides to drop by 30-35 p.c,” he instructed Al Jazeera.
Whereas larger commodity costs have helped offset the fast monetary influence, Choudhary mentioned extended disruption is prone to delay main tasks and weigh on the longer term development plans of US oil and fuel corporations with a presence within the area.
Who has profited?
The surge within the oil worth since early March, when Iran first closed the Strait of Hormuz, has delivered a windfall for oil corporations, however good points have been tempered by challenges within the Gulf.
Chevron has restricted publicity to Arab Gulf provide disruptions, with the area accounting for simply 5 p.c of its whole world output. The group reported its highest quarterly revenue in six years of $12bn in adjusted earnings on July 31.
ExxonMobil, against this, has been much more uncovered to disruption within the Center East, with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian assaults on US-linked infrastructure within the area affecting its operations in Qatar and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which collectively account for 20 p.c of its world fairness upstream provide, based on Choudhary.
“We already noticed in H1 [the first half of] 2026, the corporate’s upstream earnings dropped by round $1.3bn in comparison with H1 2025, as a result of decrease upstream volumes from the Center East. Nevertheless, the shortfall was lined effectively by larger commodity costs,” Choudhary mentioned.
The distinction highlights a broader divide between these US power corporations which have benefitted from tighter world provide – and the corresponding rise within the oil worth – and people with belongings, partnerships or operations within the Gulf at higher danger of disruption brought on by latest assaults on power services.
The place are US power corporations uncovered within the Gulf?
The Gulf’s power sector is dominated by state-owned giants akin to Saudi Aramco, Abu Dhabi Nationwide Oil Firm (ADNOC) and QatarEnergy.
Though these nationwide oil and fuel corporations retain management over the area’s reserves and core infrastructure, US power companies have carved out strategic positions throughout the area.
US corporations generate income by means of stakes in manufacturing belongings, joint ventures, manufacturing agreements, refining and petrochemical tasks, in addition to by means of long-term contracts to offer gear, engineering and operational experience.
ExxonMobil has a few of the largest US business pursuits within the Gulf.
The corporate has been a serious companion in Qatar’s LNG sector for many years, holding stakes in a number of QatarEnergy LNG joint ventures linked to the growth of the North Area. The sector is the Qatari part of the North Area-South Pars construction, the world’s largest pure fuel discipline, which Qatar shares with Iran, the place it is named South Pars. ExxonMobil additionally holds an curiosity within the UAE’s Higher Zakum offshore oilfield alongside ADNOC.
Equally, ConocoPhillips joined the North Area East (NFE) and North Area South (NFS) growth tasks with QatarEnergy in 2022 to extend export capability at Ras Laffan.
The US group, Occidental Petroleum, has turn out to be one of many largest overseas producers in Oman, working the Mukhaizna heavy oilfield, the nation’s largest producing oilfield. It additionally holds pursuits in UAE fuel and pipeline tasks.
Chevron maintains a smaller however strategically essential Gulf footprint. By way of Saudi Arabian Chevron, the corporate operates oil belongings within the Saudi-Kuwait Partitioned Zone, together with the Wafra discipline. In July, it mentioned it was exploring potential routes to maneuver Iraqi crude to Mediterranean export terminals, which may cut back reliance on the Strait of Hormuz.
The place have assaults on power services taken place?
In keeping with the Armed Battle Location and Occasion Knowledge (ACLED), a US-registered impartial battle monitor, Iran and Iran-backed teams within the area have carried out at the very least 172 assaults on nonmilitary infrastructure throughout the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) nations because the US and Israel launched their warfare on February 28.
Power infrastructure has been hit hardest, with oil and fuel services, together with energy vegetation and desalination vegetation, accounting for practically half (48 p.c) of all strikes on nonmilitary targets.
The UAE, Kuwait and Bahrain have suffered the best variety of profitable strikes, with the bulk aimed toward oil and fuel services.
Among the many websites which were struck are Kuwait’s Mina Abdullah and Mina al-Ahmadi refineries, the Bahrain Petroleum Firm oil refinery, and ADNOC’s al-Ruwais Industrial Metropolis and the Habshan fuel advanced.
There have additionally been a number of strikes on Saudi Aramco services, most just lately a drone strike on July 27 on the Abqaiq processing advanced, some of the essential nodes in Saudi Arabia’s oil infrastructure, processing greater than seven million barrels of oil per day.
Nasser Khdour, Center East assistant analysis supervisor at ACLED, mentioned: “Oil and fuel services, energy vegetation and water desalination vegetation are prone to stay key targets for Iran as a result of disruption to those sectors can enhance financial strain on Gulf states, whereas disruption to world power provides will increase costs and strain on the US in periods of escalation.”
In March, a drone assault near the Saudi Aramco-ExxonMobil SAMREF refinery in Yanbu disrupted oil loading on the metropolis’s Purple Sea port. Whereas the assault had solely minimal operational influence, it highlighted the vulnerability of US-linked power belongings within the area.
Qatar’s Ras Laffan Industrial Metropolis, the world’s largest LNG export hub, which hosts main joint ventures between QatarEnergy, ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips, additionally got here below repeated assault in March, at one level forcing the plant to halt manufacturing completely. In June, an explosion because of a “technical malfunction” on Qatar’s Barzan fuel venture, the place ExxonMobil holds a stake, killed at the very least 13 folks.
“When it comes to fuel belongings being impacted, main blows have been [dealt to] corporations [that are] a part of LNG tasks in Qatar: ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips,” Choudhary mentioned.
He added that ExxonMobil’s share of LNG provide from Qatar is predicted to fall considerably this yr to about 4 million tonnes in contrast with 13 million tonnes final yr, whereas ConocoPhillips has additionally skilled lowered volumes to 1 million tonnes this yr in contrast with 2.5 million tonnes final yr.
The assaults on Qatar’s LNG infrastructure may have longer-term penalties. Harm to LNG trains at Ras Laffan may take years to restore, based on QatarEnergy, whereas delays to Qatar’s North Area growth tasks may push again deliberate provide development.
“The assault on LNG trains 4 and 6 at Rasgas broken roughly 13 million tonnes of capability, which is able to take anyplace between three to 5 years to come back again on-line with a complete restore value estimate of round $3bn,” mentioned Choudhary.
He added that the second most impacted fuel venture has been the Shah fuel venture within the UAE, wherein Occidental Petroleum has a 40-percent stake and the place drone assaults in March prompted a fireplace on the fuel plant that halted operations.
The battle has additionally affected ExxonMobil’s oil pursuits within the UAE, Choudhary mentioned. Manufacturing from Higher Zakum, the place ExxonMobil has a 28 p.c stake, was lowered between March and Could when export routes have been disrupted, limiting the flexibility to maneuver offshore crude.
Past the UAE, probably the most important influence on US corporations’ oilfield operations performed out in Iraq. A drone assault hit the Sarsang oilfield in March, adopted by an explosion at certainly one of its storage services in April, collectively inflicting harm to the sphere.
Wanting forward, Choudhary mentioned larger costs may assist money flows, however extended battle dangers may threaten future development. ExxonMobil’s $10bn Higher Zakum and Qatar LNG expansions may face delays, whereas ConocoPhillips stays uncovered by means of investments in higher-risk markets, together with its deliberate 42-percent stake in BP’s Kirkuk operations in Iraq.
“For corporations like Chevron and Occidental Petroleum, whose presence are in much less risky nations like Israel and Oman respectively, the influence of escalations won’t be as extreme, as we’ve not seen important disruption in these nations,” mentioned Choudhary.
US oilfield service corporations within the Gulf
Oilfield service giants, together with US companies SLB (previously Schlumberger), Halliburton and Baker Hughes, present drilling applied sciences, gear and operational experience throughout the Gulf, supporting Saudi Aramco, ADNOC and QatarEnergy.
For oilfield service corporations, the outlook is blended, based on Chinmayi Teggi, power analysis analyst at Rystad Power, a analysis group. Whereas larger oil costs and power safety issues may elevate demand over time, near-term margins stay below strain from larger logistical prices, supply-chain disruptions and delayed tasks.
“For the Large Three (SLB, Baker Hughes and Halliburton), the battle continues to weigh on regional revenues,” Teggi instructed Al Jazeera, including that second-quarter Center East revenues have been down 8-10 p.c in contrast with the earlier yr throughout the three corporations, whereas larger oil costs meant revenues have been larger in different geographies.
Nevertheless, a restoration in suspended operations and manufacturing may assist drive development into 2027.
For US corporations, subsequently, the Gulf stays each a chance and a danger.
“The influence on US corporations will rely on the extent of publicity and nations wherein these corporations are current,” Choudhary mentioned.
Their investments have secured US entry to a few of the world’s most essential oil and LNG tasks, however the battle has uncovered the chance of working in a area the place power infrastructure has turn out to be more and more susceptible to geopolitical battle.
US President Donald Trump has repeatedly warned Iran in opposition to proscribing entry to the Strait of Hormuz, arguing that the waterway should stay open to world commerce.
However for corporations with billions of {dollars} invested throughout the Gulf, the problem isn’t nearly protecting shipments transferring – it’s making certain the infrastructure stays safe, they are saying.
