Six months after US and Israeli air strikes in opposition to Iran launched a conflict that has shaken power markets and disrupted world delivery, there’s nonetheless no clear finish to the confrontation. Whereas Iran’s army capabilities have suffered main harm, it retains leverage within the Strait of Hormuz.
Specialists interviewed by RFE/RL from throughout Washington’s coverage spectrum see the subsequent part being formed by 4 questions: how lengthy Iran can face up to economic pressure, can diplomacy flip army features right into a sturdy settlement, what occurs to Hormuz, and whether or not Russia and China assist Tehran rebuild.
‘Financial Onslaught’
Retired Vice Admiral Robert Harward, a former deputy commander of US Central Command, describes the state of affairs as a “regular state.” However he argues that the clock is ticking for Tehran.
“Time is their largest downside,” Harward advised RFE/RL, saying sustained financial stress might ultimately grow to be an inner menace to the Iranian authorities.
Bread-and-butter points sparked the mass demonstrations in December-January that had been put solely down with brutal pressure involving the killing of 1000’s of protesters.
That is how Washington is now presenting the battle, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent asserting what he referred to as an “ economic onslaught” of measures to additional isolate Iran on August 24. Bessent will press G20 finance ministers on this throughout conferences in Asheville, North Carolina, on August 31-September 1.
Harward mentioned the stress might grow to be an inner menace if Tehran ultimately struggles to pay the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), Basij militia, and different state establishments, or if bizarre Iranians face shortages of gasoline and different necessities.
Winter situations, he mentioned, might make the stress notably consequential.
China is central to the calculation.
Elaine Dezenski, head of the Heart on Financial and Monetary Energy on the Basis for Protection of Democracies, mentioned China’s financial relationship with Iran is important however not an alliance within the conventional sense.
About 80 % of Iran’s exported oil goes to China, she mentioned, however Iranian oil accounts for less than about 12 to 13 % of China’s crude imports.
“If China had been to chop off its purchases of Iranian oil…that may have an enormous impact,” Dezenski mentioned. To date, nevertheless, Beijing has pushed back on US stress over its buying and selling relationship Tehran.
The problem has a longer-term monetary dimension. Iranian oil gross sales in yuan and fee via methods outdoors the US greenback community can strengthen various monetary infrastructure.
“The way in which that Iran is partaking in these transactions and the way in which that China is supporting these transactions is an try to essentially erode the US greenback’s position within the world power market,” Dezenski mentioned.
Can Diplomacy Remerge?
Whereas additional army motion has not been dominated out, officers have instructed it might have reached the bounds of its effectiveness — in different phrases, there’s not a lot else to focus on.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio mentioned in June that Iran’s defense-industrial base had suffered “huge destruction” of 80 to 90 % attrition. President Donald Trump initially mentioned 90 % of Iran’s missiles and launchers had been knocked out, later giving an 82 % estimate. He has repeatedly mentioned the navy is destroyed.
But what stays has confirmed stubbornly capable of stop delivery via the Strait of Hormuz.
For Bradley Bowman, senior director of the Heart on Army and Political Energy on the Basis for Protection of Democracies, the central distinction is between army degradation and a long-lasting political consequence.
“America has struggled constantly within the Center East to transform battlefield success into sustainable and constructive political outcomes,” Bowman advised RFE/RL. “We regularly win on the battlefield and lose on the negotiating desk.”
He mentioned a sustainable political transformation in Iran would require decisive motion by Iranians themselves. Washington, he added, doesn’t have the political will to ship “1000’s and 1000’s” of troops into Iran and maintain the casualties such an operation would entail.
Bowman additionally mentioned the struggle has additionally demonstrated the dimensions of US weapons expenditure and raised questions concerning the portions of offensive and defensive munitions obtainable for different potential theaters.
There are mixed signals from Iran.
Some components, together with the IGRC, appear in no hurry to push forward with talks forward of November’s midterm elections in the USA. Different key members of the clerical authorities have spoken repeatedly not too long ago of the financial ache and of the significance of reviving diplomacy.
Hormuz: Iran’s Key Leverage
For Gawdat Bahgat, a professor of national-security affairs on the Nationwide Protection College’s Close to East South Asia Heart for Strategic Research, crucial growth of the previous six months could be the emergence of the Strait of Hormuz as Iran’s principal remaining bargaining instrument.
“Even when a brief settlement is signed, will probably be momentary, however sooner or later they may preserve threatening to shut the strait,” he mentioned.
The waterway historically carries about one-fifth of the world’s oil, liquid pure fuel, and different important commodities. This has additionally translated into financial stress on the USA, as world markets push up gasoline costs.
The strait is just about 39 kilometers large at its narrowest level. Iran and Oman each declare the utmost 22.2 kilometers allowed underneath the United Nations Conference on the Legislation of the Sea (UNCLOS) as territorial waters, that means there are not any worldwide waters within the space.
UNCLOS is meant to ensure the suitable of transit passage for business vessels and prohibits their blockade. Tehran, nevertheless, by no means ratified UNCLOS and says it isn’t sure by the treaty. The USA has additionally not ratified it.
Bahgat says the Gulf states might ultimately press for an association that restores stability even when it formalizes some Iranian position within the strait. Their precedence, he mentioned, is returning to financial stability.
The tougher query is whether or not Washington can settle for some type of Iranian management or financial profit from the waterway.
Bowman argues that the essential challenge is whether or not business ship captains and insurers regard the route as secure.
Iran subsequently doesn’t essentially want to shut Hormuz fully. Intermittent missile or drone assaults can elevate insurance coverage prices and deter delivery, whereas assaults on infrastructure in Gulf states can create further stress on nations that cooperate with Washington.
“That truly turns our Arab companions into automobiles of leverage that Iran is exerting on Washington,” Bowman mentioned.
Iran’s Serving to Hand From Russia, China
One other main query is whether or not Iran’s exterior companions can assist it rebuild.
Bowman cited Chinese language shipments of chemical precursors and Russian concentrating on info and drone assist as proof of rising help. He mentioned Moscow is contemplating whether or not to ship Su-35 fighters to Iran, whereas Beijing might transfer from supplying dual-use supplies towards completed weapons and munitions.
The way forward for that assist, he mentioned, will rely closely on how Beijing and Moscow assess the seemingly US response.
“The No. 1 factor China fears is secondary sanctions from the USA,” Bowman mentioned. Bessent’s announcement hinted at these, however additionally they carry the danger of Chinese language retaliation and it isn’t clear how far Washington is ready to ratchet up stress of this sort.
Iran’s army restoration can’t be separated from the broader community supporting it, he mentioned.
A research led by Bowman documented 616 incidents of safety cooperation amongst China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea between January 2019 and December 2025, overlaying areas together with arms growth and transfers, army workouts, intelligence sharing, and army diplomacy.
By RFE/RL
