India recorded the best variety of deaths from glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs), just like the one which struck Nepal on Wednesday, regardless of being third on the checklist of eight nations within the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) area when it comes to experiencing such deluges.
The statistics are a part of a UN-led international report ready by a consortium of specialists belonging to at the very least six nations.
The HKH covers 4.2 million sq. km throughout Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, China, Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh and Myanmar.
The paper titled “Glacial Lake Outburst Flood Dangers, Response Methods and Adaptation Gaps within the Hindu Kush Himalaya Area” is within the pre-publication stage and covers knowledge from 1835 to 2025.
In line with knowledge parsed by the paper, China witnessed 199 GLOFs, adopted by Pakistan (152), India (62) and Nepal (58). Nonetheless, India recorded 6,119 fatalities whereas China recorded 625 deaths and Pakistan 1,991.
India has additionally “skilled essentially the most extreme GLOF-related displacement, adopted by Nepal and Pakistan”.
Dipesh Chapagain, a glacial scientist at United Nations College Institute for Atmosphere and Human Safety (UNU-EHS), Bonn, and the lead creator of the paper, advised The Telegraph that GLOFs had elevated quickly in latest a long time primarily as a consequence of local weather change.
“A marked acceleration in GLOF frequency grew to become evident after 1950. The post-1950 common rose sharply to roughly 34 occasions per decade — a fivefold improve in comparison with the pre-1950 interval,” the paper states.
The examine pinpoints the climatic components that set off such occasions.
“The noticed dominance of ice avalanches (50 per cent) and intense rainfall (25 per cent) as major triggers is in keeping with this climate-driven pathway. The focus of 70 per cent of occasions through the summer season monsoon months, when temperatures and precipitation are concurrently at their peak, additional corroborates the coupling between climatic drivers and GLOF incidence,” the paper states.
“The predominance of moraine- and ice-dammed lakes in HKH GLOF occasions — accounting for round 80 per cent of noticed outbursts and nearly all recorded fatalities — displays the inherent instability of those dam sorts below warming circumstances,” it factors out.
Moraine- and ice-dammed lakes are water our bodies being held again in mountain valleys by pure obstacles fabricated from leftover rock particles or strong glacial ice.
“The continual influx of meltwater and sediment load, amplified by rising temperature, raises water ranges, which ends up in an elevated hydrostatic strain on the pure dams. This makes these dams extra inclined to breaches, which might be triggered by further processes equivalent to ice or snow avalanches, landslides or seismic exercise,” the examine explains. Consultants suspect this phenomenon prompted the Nepal disaster.
In line with the examine, India, Nepal and Pakistan establish GLOFs as a vital problem due to the excessive danger of earthquakes. “Adjustments in glacier mass stability are additionally thought of a key indicator of local weather change within the HKH area,” the paper states.
The paper flags the inadequacy of anti-GLOF measures in India, which explains the upper demise toll regardless of a decrease variety of GLOF incidents.
“We’ve got not learnt classes from the 2025 Chamoli incident or 2023 Teesta flash flood in Sikkim and Bengal. Until we begin to leapfrog our glacier adaptation, we’re going to have a mega bloodbath like Nepal and even larger, because the inhabitants publicity is larger,” a local weather knowledgeable who didn’t want to be recognized stated on Friday.
