Brent heads towards a 5% weekly acquire as stalled US-Iran talks and Hormuz assaults push oil costs towards $100.
Friday, August 14, 2026
Crude oil costs are set to publish a 5% weekly acquire after this week quashed hopes (for the umpteenth time) of a negotiated US-Iran settlement, with Tehran ratcheting up its strikes on ships making an attempt to transit the Strait of Hormuz, while the White Home doubled down on its maritime blockade of Iranian crude. The unusually excessive, 17-million-barrel construct in US crude inventories has offset a bit a part of the general bullishness; nonetheless, if the tempo of naval assaults is to proceed into the second half of August, ICE Brent would bounce from its present $88 per barrel nearer to the $100 per barrel threshold.
OPEC Retains Trimming Its Oil-Demand Outlook. OPEC slashed its outlook for 2026 international oil demand development to 580,000 b/d, a stark distinction to the IEA’s 1.6 million b/d decline, marking the fourth straight month when the Vienna-based group was pressured to curb its forecast amidst the Hormuz disaster.
IEA Sees Oil Deficit Deepening Regardless of Demand Collapse. In its month-to-month report, the Worldwide Power Company predicted that international provide will fall by 4.3 million b/d in 2026, pushing the Q3 deficit to 1.8 million b/d whilst report gasoline costs result in an unprecedented 1.6 million b/d demand destruction.
Saudi Crude Allocations Go Off Script. Saudi nationwide oil agency Saudi Aramco (TADAWUL:2222) is negotiating September provides with Asian consumers individually as shipowners shun each Hormuz and the Crimson Sea, leaving even confirmed volumes unsure regardless of its method costs falling to a six-year low.
Ukraine Affords Russia a Black Sea Delivery Truce. Kyiv has reportedly proposed halting assaults on civilian vessels and ports as escalating strikes cripple its agriculture exports, sending Ukrainian grain shipments down 76% year-on-year to date in August, reviving fears of one other international food-supply shock.
Alaska LNG Hits One other Political Roadblock. A tax invoice wanted to advance the $50 billion Alaska LNG export venture stalled within the state legislature, unsettling buyers as developer Glenfarne struggles to safe sufficient binding contracts to finance the deliberate 20 mtpa and begin liquefaction by 2031.
US and Iran Each Declare the Keys to Hormuz. The Iranian authorities insists no vessel can transit the Hormuz with out its permission, immediately difficult President Trump’s declare of “whole management” of the strategic waterway as Tehran ties the reopening of the strait to political concessions from the US.
Drone Strikes Intestine Russia’s Gas Exports. Russia’s seaborne refined product exports plunged by a 3rd month-over-month in July to three.93 million tonnes, halving from ranges seen a yr in the past, as decrease refinery runs and a ban on diesel exports hampered refiners’ alternatives to export fuels.
US Gulf Lease Sale Attracts $82.7 Million. The US Division of Inside’s 3rd lease sale within the Gulf of America solely generated 82.7 million in bids, with 16 firms bidding throughout 59 offshore blocks, with the public sale providing 15,100 but unleased blocks because the White Home desires to spice up offshore output.Vaca Muerta’s Oil Prize Practically Doubles. The federal government of Argentina has raised its estimate of technically recoverable shale oil within the Vaca Muerta play to 30.1 billion barrels, double the earlier estimate of 16 billion, reinforcing plans to elevate output and to export greater than 1 million b/d by 2027.
Saudi Barrels Pile Up at Residence. Saudi Aramco (TADAWUL:2222) raised output by greater than 1 million b/d to eight.2 million b/d in July, nonetheless, solely an incremental 200,000 b/d reached the markets as Bab el-Mandeb disruptions drive Riyadh to spice up home inventories to their highest since at the least 2016.
Ukraine Knocks Orsk Refinery Out for Six Months. The 115,000 b/d capability Orsk refinery in Russia plant has completely shut after a Ukrainian drone strike earlier this week, forcing the Orenburg area to ration native provides because the alternative of the broken distillation unit may take as much as 6 months.
Russian Oil Spill Washes Ashore in Oman. A slick from the sanctioned Caroline Bezengi tanker has unfold throughout greater than 2,000 km2 following a June 8 drone assault and begun hitting Oman’s shoreline, threatening a marine reserve as “act of struggle” guidelines and the vessel’s lack of insurance coverage hamper cleanup.
Qatar Extends India’s LNG Drought. QatarEnergy has extended its drive majeure to India via August after delivering Petronet simply two cargoes for the reason that struggle started, with 56 time period shipments now missed, as Qatar’s share of Indian LNG imports dipped from greater than 45% in 2025 to 12% this yr.
Nigeria Sweetens the Deal for Deepwater Oil. Nigeria’s President Bola Tinubu approved a rules-based tax incentive framework to switch project-by-project talks for deepwater tasks, beginning with Shell’s Bonga Southwest venture as Abuja targets $50 billion of offshore funding and three million b/d of output.
Explosion Disrupts Europe’s Largest Port. A blast at Gunvor’s Rotterdam terminal killed one individual and injured a number of others, whereas an unrelated energy failure halted ExxonMobil’s 200,000 b/d refinery after a fireplace in a transformer substation prompted close by industrial websites to droop operations and evacuate.
By Tom Kool for Oilprice.com
