After a niche of just about 10 years, India is about to import round 1 million tonnes (mt) of uncooked sugar at nil responsibility to chill down home costs, with the benchmark ex-mill value in Maharashtra reaching a excessive of ₹5,400-5,560 per quintal.
The steep rise in costs since March 2026, simply because the nation is getting into the high-consumption pageant interval, is essentially attributed to bone-dry pipeline shares with mills as consumption exceeded manufacturing within the 2025-26 season that began on October 1, 2025.
Some consultants stated the choice to permit exports of 1.5-2.0 mt of sugar, when India was observing a scarcity based mostly on “defective” manufacturing estimates, can also be accountable for the state of affairs.
In November 2025, the Centre first permitted exports of 1.5 mt of sugar; this was later raised to 2 mt. Of this, round 0.8 mt of sugar has been shipped overseas earlier than the exports have been prohibited, in line with business estimates — virtually the same amount that India is now planning to permit mills to import within the type of uncooked sugar.
“This clearly exhibits that somebody someplace was deceptive the system into believing that the sugar fundamentals within the nation have been robust, whereas in actuality manufacturing was not making up for consumption,” a senior business government stated.
He stated this was as a result of as late as February 2026, when the crushing season was already virtually 4 to 5 months previous, an extra export quota of 0.5 mt was permitted over and above the already allowed 1.5 mt.
India, in line with business sources, final permitted uncooked sugar imports within the 2016-17 season.
Primarily based on some estimates, India’s precise web sugar manufacturing within the 2025-26 season is round 27.9 mt, after accounting for two.4 mt of ethanol. The opening inventory in 2025-26 was near round 4.7 mt.
This implies whole availability was someplace round 32.6 mt. Sugar consumption this 12 months is estimated at 28 mt. This leaves a closing inventory of round 4.7 mt.
However as quickly as exports are included into the image, and 0.8 mt is added to consumption, closing shares drop to three.5-3.9 mt, leaving the nation observing a scarcity.
“Ideally, India ought to have normative closing sugar shares of 6 mt, which is three months’ consumption, however the present state of affairs exhibits that it might have decrease than required inventory ranges initially of the 2026-27 season from October 1, 2026,” one other official remarked.
That has necessitated the imports.
Authorities sources stated the federal government is believed to have suggested mills to advance their crushing in order that availability could be maintained, however which may not be sufficient to satisfy the hole, necessitating the imports. It has additionally tightened inventory disclosure and reporting norms.
A giant query is whether or not a possible import of 1 mt of sugar will result in a major drop in ex-mill and wholesale charges.
Sources stated which may not be the case, and costs at finest would possibly go down by ₹500 per quintal from their present ranges.
“For the mills it isn’t such an sad state of affairs as even when costs come down by ₹500 per quintal, they may nonetheless be greater than the manufacturing value of ₹4,200-4,300 per quintal. This could assist them clear sugarcane dues quicker,” stated the chief talked about above.
In the meantime, uncooked sugar costs in New York, the benchmark index, rose to a 14-month excessive of near 17.47 cents per pound a number of days again on the information of India planning imports after a niche of just about a decade. “This interprets right into a landed value (FOB) of round ₹3,840 per quintal at nil responsibility, which implies that there needs to be appreciable constructive margin in importing,” the chief added.
