Vikram Subburaj, CEO, Giottus.com
Bitcoin traded near $64,490 at 8.25 am IST on August 6, after gaining about 0.2% over 24 hours. Its market capitalisation stood at approximately $1.29 trillion, while daily trading volume remained modest at $22.6 billion. The asset has now spent several weeks inside a $60,000-$67,000 range.
The $63,000 region has become the centre of that range. Glassnode data show that nearly 515,000 BTC last moved around this price. That represents more than 3% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply. The same data place another 362,000 BTC around $61,000. Bitcoin’s 200-week moving average is also close to $63,657. These cost concentrations give buyers a defensible zone between $61,000 and $63,700.
The first immediate support lies between $63,650 and $63,900. A break below this zone would bring $63,000 back into focus. Failure at $63,000 could expose $62,600 and then the larger cost base near $61,000. The first resistance is at $65,000. Bitcoin approached this level during the latest 24-hour session but stopped near $64,931. A stronger supply zone lies between $66,000 and $67,000. A close above $67,000 would break the multi-week range. A move above $65,000 alone would be an improvement but not confirmation. Bitcoin has already failed to sustain an earlier recovery above $66,000.
ETF flows offer the clearest evidence that institutional demand is trying to return. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of $265.4 million on July 31. They reversed with inflows of $170.1 million on August 3 and $211.5 million on August 4. The completed August 3-4 sessions therefore attracted $381.6 million. A provisional $47.6 million followed on August 5. The 3-session inflow could reach $429.2 million once every fund reports its final figure. The rebound is meaningful because June saw ETFs shed an estimated 65,800 BTC. That was their worst monthly withdrawal since the products began trading in 2024. A 3-day reversal cannot by itself repair a withdrawal of that scale.
ETF demand also remains concentrated in 2 products. BlackRock’s IBIT has received approximately $60.5 billion since launch. Fidelity’s FBTC has attracted about $9.95 billion.
The on-chain picture is stronger than the price chart initially suggests. Every wallet-size cohort was accumulating near $63,000. Retail wallets and whales holding at least 1,000 BTC showed the strongest demand.
Macro calendar
The macro calendar could supply the trigger that the present range lacks. The US employment report is due on August 7. Market estimates point to 80,000-83,000 new jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.2%. The earlier ADP report showed only 44,000 private-sector jobs in July. Economists had expected approximately 75,000. A similarly weak official report could reduce the probability of another rate increase. Inflation data will follow on August 12 and August 13. July CPI is due on August 12, while July PPI is scheduled for August 13. June producer inflation had reached 5.5% from a year earlier.
The Federal Reserve’s preferred PCE inflation measure is due on August 26. Headline PCE was 3.7% in June. That remains well above the Fed’s 2% target. The Fed held its policy range at 3.50%-3.75% on July 29. However, 3 policymakers supported an increase. The September 15-16 meeting will therefore depend heavily on the next employment and inflation readings.
Altcoins have yet to confirm a broader recovery. Ethereum gained 1.25% to approximately $1,896. BNB fell 1.50% to about $593. XRP declined 2.59% to nearly $1.05. Solana lost 0.85% to trade around $73.49. TRON gained 0.35% to approximately $0.328. CoinMarketCap’s Altcoin Season Index stood at 44 out of 100. That reading continues to classify the market as a Bitcoin-led phase. A sustainable altcoin advance will require stronger participation than the mixed 24-hour performance of the top 5 non-stablecoin assets.
Our advice: For investors, $63,000 is the level that defines near-term risk. The $67,000 ceiling defines whether the recovery has become a breakout. Until one of those 2 boundaries gives way, position size matters more than conviction.
