Vikram Subburaj, CEO, Giottus.com
Bitcoin entered August 7 near $64,300, almost unchanged over 24 hours and little moved from where it traded a week earlier. The apparent calm conceals a market pulled in two directions. US exchange-traded funds have begun attracting money again and activity on the Bitcoin network has strengthened. Yet neither has been sufficient to push the asset beyond the range that has contained it for several weeks.
The improvement in ETF demand is the clearest positive development. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of $170.1 million on August 3, $211.5 million on August 4, and $244.4 million on August 5. The August 6 tally stood at a provisional $9.3 million, taking the month-to-date total to approximately $635 million. BlackRock’s IBIT contributed $478.5 million during the first three sessions. This is more than three-quarters of the money received by the funds.
This reverses the $265.4 million outflow recorded on July 31. It does not, however, establish that institutional demand has fully recovered. Glassnode estimates that spot ETFs returned about 65,800 BTC to the market in June, their worst month on record. The latest inflows are therefore better understood as a change in direction rather than a complete repair of the demand lost during the second quarter.
Bitcoin’s restrained response also offers a useful reading of the market. Fresh ETF money is presently absorbing available supply and supporting the price around $63,000-$64,000. It is not yet creating enough demand to force a breakout.
On-chain activity increased sharply after the Coldcard wallet exploit, but the movement did not translate into equivalent selling pressure. About 119,000 BTC that had remained dormant for more than a year moved during the following three days. Only around 10% reached exchanges, while the supply held in wallets less than a month old rose 40%. The data suggest that many holders transferred their Bitcoin to new wallets rather than preparing to sell it.
The price levels reflect this uncertainty. Bitcoin’s immediate support lies at $64,000, followed by a more important zone between $63,000 and $63,400. A daily close below $63,000 could open a test of $62,500 and, subsequently, $60,000. On the upside, Bitcoin must first clear $64,900-$65,200. The larger hurdle is between $66,000 and $66,600. A sustained close above $66,600 would bring $67,000 and then $68,700-$69,000 into view.
The lack of conviction is more pronounced among altcoins. Ethereum gained 0.35% to about $1,905 and BNB was nearly unchanged at $593. XRP declined 1.05% to $1.03, Solana lost 1.08% to trade near $72.60 and TRON slipped 0.32% to $0.327. Altcoin open interest has fallen approximately 15% over the past month, while CoinMarketCap’s Altcoin Season Index stood at 42 out of 100. Capital is favouring Bitcoin and Ethereum rather than moving broadly across the market.
The next direction may be decided outside crypto. The US employment report due on August 7 is expected to show that the economy added between 80,000 and 83,000 jobs in July, compared with 57,000 in June. Unemployment is forecast to remain at 4.2%. The earlier ADP report showed only 44,000 private-sector jobs against an expectation of approximately 75,000.
The employment data carry additional weight because the US Federal Reserve held rates at 3.50%-3.75% in July by a 9-3 vote. The three dissenters preferred a 25-basis-point increase. A strong jobs report would support their argument that the economy can withstand tighter policy. A weak reading would reduce the probability of an increase and could ease pressure on risk assets. July consumer inflation follows on August 12, with producer prices due on August 13. Oil has also moved back above $83 a barrel as tensions in the Middle East have intensified. If higher energy costs begin feeding into inflation, the Fed will have less room to soften its position.
Our advice: Bitcoin is consequently approaching the macro calendar with stronger institutional support but without a confirmed price trend. ETF inflows have helped protect the lower end of the range. A move above $66,600 would show that this demand is beginning to influence price. Until then, investors should treat the present stability as a period for measured accumulation, not an invitation to increase leverage.
