A query has been raised whether or not the Mecca Pact may have a unfavourable influence on our doctrine that Operation Sindoor has solely been suspended and that it will be resumed if Pakistan engages in terrorism sooner or later.
However the Mecca Pact solely speaks of aggression, not defence towards terrorism, factors out Ambassador T P Sreenivasan.
IMAGE: Türkiye’s Overseas Minister Hakan Fidan, Pakistan’s Deputy Prime Minister and Overseas Minister Mohammad Ishaq Dar, Saudi Arabia’s Overseas Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud, Türkiye’s Defence Minister Yasar Guler, Turkish Chief of Basic Employees Basic Selcuk Bayraktaroglu, Pakistan’s Chief of Defence Forces and Chief of Military Employees Area Marshal Asim Munir, Pakistan’s Defence Minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif, Saudi Arabia’s Defence Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman and Saudi Arabia’s Chief of Basic Employees Basic Fayyadh bin Hamed Al-Ruwaili on the first committee assembly beneath the Mecca Joint Defence Settlement in Istanbul, Türkiye, August 31, 2026. {Photograph}: Murad Sezer/Reuters
Key Factors
- The Mecca Pact, a brand new safety alliance together with Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Türkiye, is reshaping Gulf geopolitics, shifting past conventional US safety ensures.
- The alliance emerged as Gulf nations sought various safety preparations following Iranian drone threats, perceiving the US presence itself as a threat.
- Pakistan’s function as a mediator between the US and Iran contributed to its inclusion within the Mecca Pact, elevating considerations in India relating to its Operation Sindoor doctrine.
- The pact’s give attention to ‘aggression’ somewhat than ‘terrorism’ could alleviate some Indian considerations, however Israel and the US are more likely to view the alliance with suspicion attributable to Pakistan and Türkiye’s involvement.
- China is anticipated to welcome the sidelining of American affect within the area, whereas India is anticipated to turn out to be a serious associate within the Gulf’s post-war rebuilding efforts.
One unintended consequence of the US-Iran warfare is the turbulence within the Gulf, which has paved the best way for a brand new safety paradigm, which works past the white man’s burden to protect the geese that lay the golden eggs.
Maintaining the oil move to maintain the American gasoline stations ship oil low-cost and protected drove the US coverage in direction of the Gulf.
There was no nice menace to the area from wherever, not even from the Communists or the terrorists.
Even after the Iranian revolution and the Iranians stored American diplomats hostage in Teheran, American pursuits had been protected even after 9/11.
There have been unconfirmed studies of the US permitting a number of Iranian nationals to go away quickly after the World Commerce Centre towers had been demolished by passenger jets managed by unarmed terrorists.
IMAGE: First committee assembly of the Mecca Joint Defence Settlement in Istanbul. {Photograph}: Murad Sezer/Reuters
Emergence of the Mecca Pact
However when the Iranian drones appeared on the skies over the UAE and Qatar, the Gulf nations sensed a hazard to their safety even beneath the American umbrella.
They started different choices because the American presence within the Gulf itself was a menace to them within the face of Iranian drones hovering over the Gulf.
There isn’t a chance for them to ask the Individuals to go away, however they appear to be shifting within the course of overlapping safety preparations amongst themselves inside the Islamic brotherhood.
The emergence of Pakistan as a bridge between the Gulf nations started even earlier than the US-Iran warfare.
Pakistan signed a Strategic Mutual Defence Settlement with Saudi Arabia on September 17, 2025, which raised eyebrows in India and elsewhere.
Considerably, it included the NATO provision that ‘any aggression towards both nation shall be thought-about an aggression towards each’, leaving everybody questioning what the provocation for it was.
However that was the start of a course of, which led to the Mecca Pact of August 7, 2026, including Türkiye to the group, adopted by Kuwait, which signed a bilateral settlement with Pakistan, which expanded army cooperation between Kuwait and the Mecca Pact nations.
The reported studies that Bangladesh can be enthusiastic about becoming a member of the Pact is ominous, but it surely has its personal preoccupation in the mean time.
IMAGE: Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif after signing a joint defence settlement in Mecca, Saudi Arabia, August 7, 2026. {Photograph}: Saudi Press Company/Handout by way of Reuters
India’s Considerations and Geopolitical Implications
India has been uncomfortable with Pakistan rising as a mediator between the US and Iran, however we additionally famous that Pakistan had no peace plan.
It was merely offering venues and customarily conveying messages as they used to do between the US and China. However the truth is that the profile of Pakistan as a peacemaker has contributed to Pakistan changing into a member of the Mecca Pact, along with Türkiye.
A query has been raised whether or not the brand new Pact may have a unfavourable influence on our doctrine that Operation Sindoor has solely been suspended and that it will be resumed if Pakistan engages in terrorism sooner or later. However the Mecca Pact solely speaks of aggression, not defence towards terrorism.
The US, Iran and Israel must be rather more involved in regards to the Pact than India.
The presence of Türkiye, an outdated ally of Iran and Pakistan, within the Pact has its personal contradictions.
The sidelining of the US because the guarantor of peace within the Gulf is a loss to it as Türkiye has wormed its manner right into a Gulf alliance.
Israel will probably be suspicious of the Pact due to the presence of Pakistan within the Pact.
China, then again, will welcome the sidelining of America within the area.
On the entire, the Mecca Pact has altered the geopolitics within the Gulf and Iran has to take some accountability for attacking the Gulf nations merely to spite the Individuals.
Future Outlook and India’s Function
In a manner, an growth of the Pact to incorporate a number of nations outdoors the area could weaken it.
The rift between the UAE and Saudi Arabia may deepen the suspicion in regards to the Pact.
As soon as the US Iran warfare ends, the Mecca Pact will result in one other reordering of the Gulf and finally India will probably be a serious associate of the Gulf nations in rebuilding the area.
The Pact won’t have an effect on the presence of Indians there because the Gulf nations won’t flip to Pakistan to safe employees.
A lot relies on the devastation that the warfare leaves behind.
Iran additionally will need India to play a job in ending the warfare, because the Iranian president indicated to Prime Minister Modi on the SCO summit this week.
Whether or not India will reply to that decision will depend upon whether or not President Trump stays as unpredictable as earlier than.
Ambassador T P Sreenivasan is a long-time contributor to Rediff.
You possibly can learn his earlier columns here.
Characteristic Presentation: Rajesh Alva/Rediff
