Tariq Karim
The joint defence settlement signed in Mecca by Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Pakistan raises an instantaneous query: why was a brand new pact essential when Pakistan and Saudi Arabia already had a longstanding defence relationship?
Some assume the pact is aimed toward Iran. I don’t share that view. My understanding is that Saudi and Pakistani interlocutors spoke with Tehran earlier than the signing and conveyed that the settlement was not directed in opposition to Iran. There have additionally been unconfirmed media experiences that Iran was invited to affix, although Tehran has neither confirmed nor denied this.
The deeper purpose is that the Gulf’s safety equation has shifted. Many Gulf states and Türkiye more and more view Israel as an unpredictable “lone wolf” rogue actor, pushed by overtly said territorial ambitions to develop its present frontiers right into a “Better Israel” configuration, and keen to behave past the bounds of, and even in defiance of, American restraint. On this context, Riyadh, in session with Islamabad, seems to have introduced Ankara right into a wider deterrent framework.
For many years, the Gulf monarchies relied on the US as their principal exterior safety guarantor. American bases had been meant to guard small, rich states with restricted indigenous defence capability. On the similar time, these bases enabled Washington to mission energy, defend its personal strategic belongings and safe the financial provide traces on which a lot of the world relies upon.
Relations between Iran and the Arab Gulf states stay traditionally complicated, formed by Persian-Arab rivalry, Sunni-Shia tensions and competing regional ambitions. For years, many Gulf rulers noticed Iran—not Israel—because the extra quick menace and trusted Washington to include it.
The deeper purpose is that the Gulf’s safety equation has shifted. Many Gulf states and Türkiye more and more view Israel as an unpredictable “lone wolf” rogue actor, pushed by overtly said territorial ambitions to develop its present frontiers right into a “Better Israel” configuration, and keen to behave past the bounds of, and even in defiance of, American restraint. On this context, Riyadh, in session with Islamabad, seems to have introduced Ankara right into a wider deterrent framework.
That assumption has now been shaken to the core. Iran has palpably demonstrated that it could actually make the American navy presence within the Gulf pricey and susceptible by threatening or putting infrastructure at will, together with radar, air-defence and logistical services. Tehran has additionally warned Gulf states that permitting their territory for use for assaults on Iran might invite retaliation in opposition to their important vitality and public infrastructure, which is critically necessary for the survival not simply of their present ruling regimes however of their states themselves.
This has compelled Gulf leaders to reassess their survival technique. In the course of the battle, Iranian diplomacy intensified with Moscow and Beijing. China known as for a complete Gulf safety structure, whereas Russia deepened strategic coordination with Tehran. The outdated framework, wherein the US functioned because the dominant guarantor, is being robustly contested by a brand new and extra multipolar order.
From the start of this battle, I’ve argued that Iran, drawing on its historical civilisational recollections and cultural resilience, might emerge because the dominant regional energy, compelling neighbouring states to recalibrate their safety insurance policies round Tehran. I nonetheless see that state of affairs unfolding.
Nevertheless, a most harmful wild card nonetheless exists—the reported contemplation of utilizing tactical nuclear weapons in opposition to Iran, since typical navy energy has so abjectly failed and American and Israeli arsenals have been perilously depleted. Ought to America or Israel desperately resort to utilizing tactical nuclear weapons in opposition to Iran, it might very seemingly tip the area into uncontrollable escalation and speed up nuclear ambitions elsewhere.
In need of that, Iran could emerge stronger. Israel doesn’t need this. It regards Iran as an existential menace and more and more views Türkiye’s increasing regional position, particularly in Syria, as a critical safety problem.
Türkiye now finds itself more and more at odds with Israeli intentions. Tensions in Syria already level to the danger of direct confrontation. Ankara can not assume that Israel will behave as a restrained or rational actor; nor can it assume that NATO solidarity would function usually if Israel and Türkiye got here to blows. America, due to its deep and abiding political attachment to Israel, can be pulled in direction of Israel quite than its NATO ally. NATO’s different European members are additionally prone to weigh in additional in direction of Israel than come to the help of fellow member Türkiye, utterly upending NATO’s persevering with relevance or viability.
Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif converse after signing a joint defence settlement in Mecca, Saudi Arabia, on August 7, 2026. Photograph: Reuters
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Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif converse after signing a joint defence settlement in Mecca, Saudi Arabia, on August 7, 2026. Photograph: Reuters
That is the place the Mecca Pact assumes significance. It’s best understood as an insurance coverage coverage for a brand new safety atmosphere wherein Iran could also be neither adversary nor ally, however an inescapable and highly effective state with which Gulf states should deal and are available to phrases. Higher, subsequently, to have interaction Tehran from a place of steadiness than from one in every of hostility and dependence.
Saudi Arabia, Qatar and others are already speaking to Iran, inspired by China and Russia. These conversations have elevated Iran’s geopolitical profile. Alongside Iran’s ties with Beijing and Moscow, the Saudi-Turkish-Pakistani association indicators a brand new regional configuration.
That is why I imagine the pact is directed much less in opposition to Iran than in opposition to unpredictable Israeli motion. Its goal is deterrence: to discourage sudden strikes that might destabilise the area. The truth that a Houthi assault on a Saudi asset after the pact didn’t set off alliance retaliation additional means that the settlement was not designed as an anti-Iranian instrument.
The three companions carry totally different strengths and vulnerabilities.
Saudi Arabia is the wealthiest of the three and may finance defence and strategic funding. But its oil-dependent economic system and vitality infrastructure stay uncovered, and its armed forces are comparatively small.
Türkiye, against this, has one in every of NATO’s largest standing armies and a sophisticated defence-industrial base. However NATO membership could not defend it in a confrontation involving Israel. Ankara subsequently has purpose to hunt extra deterrence outdoors the standard alliance construction.
If Iran emerges because the area’s main energy, Bangladesh will want constructive ties with Tehran. If Türkiye, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan form a parallel safety bloc, we may even want working relations with them.
Pakistan provides the third pillar: a longstanding safety relationship with Saudi Arabia and the one identified nuclear functionality amongst Muslim-majority states. That nuclear lever, even when by no means explicitly invoked, strengthens deterrence and will prolong political reassurance to Türkiye as nicely.
Seen collectively, the Saudi purse, Turkish navy capability and Pakistani nuclear deterrent type a defensive alliance meant to discourage adventurism, particularly by Israel. It additionally displays the popularity that Iran, backed by Russia and China, can not merely be contained via the outdated American safety umbrella.
For Bangladesh, the lesson is cautionary, with the regional image persevering with to be kaleidoscopically fluid, its ultimate form nonetheless extremely unpredictable. Our greatest choice is to maintain all doorways open, keep good bilateral relations with all sides, and keep away from any association that might place us disastrously on the incorrect facet of historical past. Such a mistake can be strategically pricey and would worsen socio-economic pressures at dwelling.
If Iran emerges because the area’s main energy, Bangladesh will want constructive ties with Tehran. If Türkiye, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan form a parallel safety bloc, we may even want working relations with them.
We’re not so highly effective or richly endowed that we are able to afford inflexible alignments. Bangladesh’s most secure course is strategic autonomy and lively neutrality: not becoming a member of both facet when companions are in battle, whereas persevering with to have interaction constructively with all to safeguard our personal nationwide curiosity.
In a Center East coming into a brand new and unsure part, that’s how Bangladesh can finest defend its pursuits whereas preserving room for flexibility of motion.
Ambassador (Retired) Tariq Karim, a former profession diplomat who served as Ambassador/Excessive Commissioner of Bangladesh to Iran and Lebanon, South Africa, the US and India. He’s at present Adviser to the Faculty of Liberal Arts and Social Sciences and the Bay of Bengal Research Centre at Impartial College, Bangladesh, and concurrently a Distinguished Visiting Analysis Fellow on the Institute of South Asian Research on the Nationwide College of Singapore.
The article was transcribed by Ystiaque Ahmed of Gradual Reads.
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