India’s financial momentum is ready to have home energy on its facet in 2026-27, however international dangers could preserve the strain on.In its annual report 2025-26, the Securities and Alternate Board of India (Sebi) mentioned that resilient financial fundamentals are anticipated to assist monetary markets, whereas geopolitical uncertainty, excessive commodity costs and unstable overseas capital flows might proceed to weigh on the outlook,Sebi’s evaluation comes after a difficult yr for Indian equities. The Nifty 50 and broader indices declined by round 14% in US greenback phrases throughout 2025-26, as sustained overseas portfolio investor (FPI) promoting, rupee depreciation, valuation issues and slower earnings development weighed available on the market. Globally, Center East battle added to the strain.Nevertheless, regardless of the troublesome market situations, home institutional buyers, notably mutual funds, supplied a big cushion by way of robust funding flows.
Robust home financial system supplies assist
The broader financial system remained resilient in 2025-26 regardless of the troublesome international backdrop, the report mentioned. Strong home demand, authorities capital expenditure and the companies sector had been among the many components supporting financial exercise.Actual GDP development was estimated at 7.7% throughout the yr, in contrast with 7.1% within the earlier yr. Non-public consumption and funding continued to be vital contributors, accounting for 56.7% and 31.9% of nominal GDP, respectively.For 2026-27, the IMF has projected India’s development at 6.5%, towards international development of three.1%.Sebi mentioned India’s comparatively robust home fundamentals, together with fiscal consolidation, enhancing inflation dynamics, stronger company stability sheets and resilient home institutional funding, are anticipated to assist its relative outperformance.
Center East battle, oil costs stay key dangers
The outlook, nonetheless, stays uncovered to developments within the international financial system. A protracted Center East battle might pose dangers to India, notably if crude oil costs stay above $100 per barrel.Such a scenario might widen the present account deficit and improve inflationary pressures, in response to the report.Commodity costs due to this fact stay a key space of concern. Greater crude costs might elevate India’s import invoice, put strain on the present account deficit and create upside dangers to inflation.Sebi mentioned strategic petroleum reserves, diversification of imports and focused fiscal assist are anticipated to stay vital in sustaining macroeconomic stability.
Report FPI outflows
International investor exercise remained a significant supply of strain on Indian equities throughout 2025-26. FPI fairness outflows reached a file $19.7 billion throughout the yr.On the identical time, Sebi pointed to potential alternatives arising from a restructuring of worldwide provide chains, which may gain advantage India.The report mentioned a sustained decision of the Center East battle and normalisation of power costs could be among the many most vital near-term catalysts for a restoration in overseas flows.The evaluation leaves Indian markets with a comparatively beneficial home backdrop for 2026-27, whereas their efficiency stays carefully linked to geopolitical developments, power costs and worldwide capital flows.
