Russia, one of many world’s greatest oil producers, is now rationing petrol at residence as Ukrainian drone strikes hit its oil refineries and disrupt gas provides.Reuters reported that petrol stations in Moscow have reintroduced limits on gas gross sales as shortages return. Gazprom Neft has capped petrol purchases at 40 litres at automated stations and 60 litres at different stations, whereas Rosneft has restricted gross sales to 30 litres per automobile throughout Russia. Tatneft has additionally set a 50-litre restrict.Lengthy queues have additionally returned at petrol stations in Moscow and the encompassing area. The restrictions come after an earlier wave of shortages eased for a brief interval in July. However recent Ukrainian assaults on refineries, together with robust seasonal demand and refinery upkeep, have once more tightened provides.
Ukraine hits Russia’s oil refineries
Russia has oil, however it’s brief on petrolThe size of the issue turns into clearer when Russia’s oil business is taken under consideration. Russia produced about 9.89 million barrels of crude oil per day in 2025, making it the world’s second-largest crude oil producer after the US, in response to the US Vitality Info Administration (EIA).The newest IEA knowledge exhibits that Russia was nonetheless producing 8.76 million barrels of crude oil per day in July 2026. The determine was decrease than the 8.86 million barrels per day recorded in June, however it exhibits that Russia continues to supply large volumes of crude whilst its petrol market faces shortages.Russia additionally has an enormous refining business. Its refineries processed about 5.4 million barrels of oil per day in 2024, in response to the EIA. The nation has main refineries unfold throughout its huge territory, together with services in Omsk, Kirishi, Ryazan, Nizhny Novgorod, Yaroslavl, Volgograd, Perm and Nizhny Novgorod.That’s the key to understanding the present disaster. Russia shouldn’t be working out of crude oil. It’s dealing with strain on the system that turns crude into petrol, diesel and different fuels.When a refinery is broken or pressured to cease processing, crude oil can nonetheless be produced, however much less of it may be transformed into usable gas. That creates a scarcity at petrol stations even when the nation continues to pump hundreds of thousands of barrels of oil on daily basis.
Russia’s gas disaster in numbers
How Ukraine is hitting Russia’s oil lifelineUkraine has more and more focused Russian oil refineries and different power services with long-range drone assaults. Kyiv has stated the marketing campaign is geared toward lowering Russia’s skill to finance and maintain its warfare effort.The newest assaults present how rapidly the strain is constructing. On August 26, Ukraine struck the NORSI refinery in Russia’s Nizhny Novgorod area, forcing the plant to droop crude processing, in response to three business sources cited by Reuters. The assault broken a number of processing models, inter-unit infrastructure and different plant services.NORSI shouldn’t be a small facility. Reuters described it as Russia’s fourth-largest oil refinery and second-largest gasoline producer. It could possibly course of about 15 million tonnes of crude a 12 months and produce round 5 million tonnes of petrol, greater than 5 million tonnes of diesel and about 2 million tonnes of gas oil.The NORSI shutdown got here simply days after one other main refinery was pressured to cease. The Perm refinery, Russia’s seventh-largest oil-processing plant by quantity, halted operations after a Ukrainian drone assault on August 21 brought about a hearth and broken technological models.The assaults have additionally hit the Afipsky refinery in Russia’s southern Krasnodar area. The plant caught fireplace after a drone assault on August 25, in response to the regional governor. Afipsky processed about 7.2 million tonnes of crude in 2024, equal to round 144,000 barrels per day.The repeated strikes are vital as a result of they’re hitting the a part of Russia’s power system that produces the gas utilized by its home financial system. The injury doesn’t should destroy a whole refinery to create a wider downside. If main processing models are shut, total output can fall even when different components of a plant stay operational.
Russia has oil, however petrol is brief
The scarcity already seen earlier than newest strikesThe petrol disaster didn’t start with the most recent assaults. Russia had been dealing with provide strain because the spring, with Ukrainian strikes on refineries changing into a rising downside.By early July, Russian petrol manufacturing had fallen to round 65 per cent of common seasonal demand, in response to business sources cited by Reuters. The estimated shortfall was round 40,000 to 45,000 tonnes a day, whereas summer time petrol demand was round 115,000 to 120,000 tonnes a day.Russia started limiting gas exports, utilizing out there shares and growing imports. It additionally relaxed some fuel-quality necessities in order that refineries might produce extra gas for the home market. Reuters reported in June that the federal government was permitting some refineries to supply gas with decrease environmental specs as Ukrainian assaults squeezed provides.The primary scarcity wave confirmed some enchancment in late July as some refineries returned to operation. However the restoration was short-lived. New assaults in late July and August once more diminished refinery output, whereas robust summer time demand continued to place strain on provides.Russia is now importing petrol from IndiaEssentially the most uncommon response has been Russia’s resolution to import completed petrol.In July, Russia started shopping for petrol from abroad as home provides tightened. Imports have been coming from international locations together with Belarus and Kazakhstan, whereas Russia additionally turned to India for seaborne provides.In August, the India connection turned extra concrete. A cargo of round 68,000 tonnes of petrol loaded at India’s Vadinar port reached Russia’s Arctic port of Vitino, in response to LSEG transport knowledge and business sources cited by Reuters. The gas was then being moved by rail to home patrons.No less than two extra petrol cargoes from India have been anticipated to reach at Russian ports inside two weeks of the August 17 report, in response to LSEG knowledge cited by Reuters. Trade sources had additionally beforehand advised Reuters that the petrol was produced by Nayara Vitality, the Indian refiner wherein Russian oil main Rosneft has a stake.The India cargo is hanging as a result of the traditional power relationship runs in the wrong way. India has turn into a significant purchaser of Russian crude.
India’s petrol goes to Russia
India buys Russian crude, Russia buys Indian petrolRussia remained India’s largest crude provider throughout April-July 2026. In July alone, Russian crude accounted for a report 50.83 per cent of India’s crude imports, or round 2.47 million barrels per day, in response to commerce knowledge cited by Reuters. Russia’s share for the primary 4 months of the monetary 12 months was 43.25 per cent.India is dependent upon imports for greater than 90 per cent of its crude oil necessities, making Russian provides an vital a part of the nation’s oil market.That makes the present movement notably uncommon: India is shopping for large portions of crude from Russia, whereas Russia is importing some completed petrol from India.The 2 flows are usually not instantly linked to one another, however collectively they spotlight the distinction between crude manufacturing and refining. Russia can stay a significant crude producer whereas nonetheless needing to purchase completed gas if its home refining system can’t produce sufficient petrol.The strain is spreading past petrol pumpsThe affect can also be exhibiting up in Russia’s wider gas commerce.Russian seaborne oil-product exports fell sharply in July. Reuters calculations primarily based on business knowledge confirmed exports fell 33.3 per cent from June and 54.7 per cent from a 12 months earlier, to three.93 million tonnes. Unplanned refinery upkeep linked to Ukrainian drone assaults was among the many components behind the decline.On the identical time, Belarus elevated its gas provides to Russia. Its gasoline exports to Russia reached 212,000 tonnes in July, up 13 per cent from June, whereas diesel exports doubled to 162,000 tonnes. From January to July, Belarusian gasoline shipments to Russia have been 25 occasions greater than in the identical interval of 2025.This exhibits that Moscow is attempting to fill the hole from a number of instructions directly, by limiting exports, shifting gas between areas and bringing in provides from neighbouring international locations and Asia.What does this imply for Russia’s warfare effort?Ukraine’s refinery marketing campaign shouldn’t be the identical as destroying Russia’s oil manufacturing. Russia continues to supply giant quantities of crude, and Moscow has a number of instruments to handle a short lived refining disruption.However the assaults create a distinct type of strain.A refinery shutdown can cut back the availability of petrol and diesel out there to civilians, companies and transport operators. The federal government then has to resolve the place restricted gas ought to go, whereas attempting to forestall costs from rising sharply and guaranteeing that important sectors proceed to obtain provides.Reuters reported in July that the Russian authorities was prioritising gas for autos delivering meals to giant retail chains because the scarcity unfold. The central financial institution additionally warned that the drop in gas manufacturing might harm financial development.The Kremlin may shield strategically vital customers, together with the navy, from a few of the results of a civilian gas scarcity. Due to this fact, the present petrol disaster doesn’t show that Russia’s navy is working out of gas. What it does present is that the power system supporting the broader financial system is beneath growing pressure.The larger downside for MoscowA very powerful query now could be how rapidly Russia can restore broken refineries and restore misplaced processing capability. Russia can compensate for some losses by way of imports and by shifting gas from one area to a different. But when refinery outages proceed, these measures turn into costlier and more durable to maintain.Russia nonetheless has the oil. It’s nonetheless producing hundreds of thousands of barrels of crude on daily basis. However Ukraine is more and more concentrating on the infrastructure that turns that crude into the gas Russia wants.For one of many world’s greatest oil producers, the bizarre half is not merely that petrol stations are imposing limits. It’s that Russia is producing the crude whereas importing the petrol. And one of many international locations serving to to fill that hole is India, the identical nation that has turn into Russia’s greatest crude-oil buyer.
