It has been six months since February 28, when the US and Israel shocked the world by launching missile strikes on Iran, killing Supreme Chief Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and a number of other senior Iranian officers in Tehran, in addition to scores of youngsters in a college in Minab, southern Iran.
US President Donald Trump then claimed the battle would solely final “4 to 5 weeks”.
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Within the months since, the conflict has erupted on a number of different fronts, reaching so far as the Caspian Sea. It has triggered a worldwide oil provide disaster because the US and Iran battle for management of the strategic Strait of Hormuz, by way of which greater than one-fifth of oil and pure fuel cargo transited.
And it has resulted in an estimated 8,000-10,000 deaths, in addition to tens of hundreds of accidents.
The battle can also be realigning the worldwide order, specialists say, as new alliances kind and dominant ones present indicators of crumbling.
Right here’s what we all know:
Has the US achieved any of its conflict goals?
The US’s targets weren’t initially clear: officers first claimed the strikes have been carried out in preemptive self-defence.
Based on demands offered on the eve of the conflict, and a jumble of sometimes contradictory statements from Trump and senior US defence officers, they embody the next:
Iran’s nuclear programme
Regardless of Trump’s declare that the US had “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear capabilities when it joined in on the finish of Israel’s 12-day conflict on Iran in June 2025, the US and Israel once more claimed in February that Tehran was simply weeks away from creating nuclear weapons.
Repeated strikes on Iran’s nuclear websites throughout the conflict have doubtless brought on huge injury to the services, however it’s believed Tehran nonetheless possesses 440kg of extremely enriched uranium, which could possibly be used to make a weapon.
The Trump administration wished Iran at hand over this inventory to the US and to decide to zero enrichment of uranium going ahead. Iran refused to do that, though at one level appeared open to the potential of handing the inventory over to a 3rd nation. Iran additionally insisted on retaining the capability to develop a nuclear energy programme, which requires a lot decrease ranges of uranium enrichment.
Later, Trump briefly floated the concept of US troops retrieving the inventory by power – a probably harmful mission.
Within the June 17 memorandum of understanding (MoU) signed by either side, Iran agreed to not pursue a nuclear weapon – one thing it had all the time pledged anyway. The MoU unravelled as its imprecise wording led to disagreements about what it really stipulated.
Clark Summers, a US army veteran and professor at Belmont Abbey Faculty in North Carolina, stated the US “can rightly assert that these ends have been achieved. Though for a way lengthy earlier than Iran can rebuild is troublesome to evaluate.”
However Iranian skilled and professor on the Australian Nationwide College (ANU), Alam Saleh, disagreed, and famous that Iran’s nuclear energy programme continues to be intact. “The US misplaced even earlier than the conflict,” he stated, including that the trouble additionally reveals that Washington failed in final 12 months’s 12-day conflict.
Regime change in Iran
On day one of many conflict – February 28 – the US killed Khamenei alongside a number of different senior officers. Trump, two days earlier, stated regime change is “the perfect factor that would occur”.
Because the US launched missiles, he additionally known as on “Iranian patriots who yearn for freedom to grab this second to be courageous, be daring, be heroic, and take again your nation”.
Iran’s political management has, nevertheless, remained largely the identical beneath the brand new Supreme Chief Mojtaba Khamenei – the late ayatollah’s son.
Summers instructed Al Jazeera that the purpose could have been “advert hoc” or improvised reasonably than well-planned. However “killing leaders doesn’t imply strategic achievements, even when it’s a tactical success,” Saleh stated.
Ending help for regional proxy teams
Iran’s “axis of resistance” is an umbrella comprising a variety of armed teams across the area that it funds. This consists of Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, Hamas within the Gaza Strip, and a number of other smaller teams in Iraq and Syria.
There are not any indicators that Tehran’s help for them has ended, and this demand didn’t seem within the MoU signed by the US.
Hezbollah went to conflict with Israel in Iran’s defence, and Iran has refused to barter an finish to the conflict until the Lebanon entrance is included. The Houthis, in the meantime, have launched a blockade on Saudi Arabia within the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, partly in help of Iran.
Iran’s ballistic missiles programme
Washington swore it might “raze” Iran’s missile services to the bottom when it launched the conflict on February 28. The US additionally pledged to destroy Iran’s navy.
Trump has since claimed that about 82 p.c of Iran’s missiles are gone and the navy is degraded.
In April, he additionally stated that 158 Iranian naval vessels had been hit, whereas US Central Command (CENTCOM) has continued to announce dozens of strikes on command centres of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
Iran, nevertheless, has continued to fireplace missiles, most not too long ago launching a long-range missile in July that killed three US troopers in Jordan.
Moreover, the demand for an finish to Iran’s ballistic missiles programme was additionally absent from the July MoU.
Management of Iranian oil
In June, Trump stated the US would seize and management Iran’s Kharg island, the guts of Iranian oil manufacturing.
So far, the US doesn’t management any Iranian territory.
What have the US and Iran gained and misplaced throughout the conflict?
Moreover the US calls for at first of the conflict, a number of different stress factors have emerged throughout the battle.
Management of the Strait of Hormuz
Quickly after the conflict started, Iran in impact closed the slim however vital Strait of Hormuz, which passes by way of its territorial waters in addition to these of Oman. Since then, delivery site visitors has slumped from greater than 100 ships per day to a mean of about 5.
To implement this closure, Iran started placing vessels within the strait, the one path to the open ocean for Gulf oil and fuel producers, which had not gained its specific permission to go by way of.
The US responded with its personal naval blockade on Iranian ports in and across the strait. That is persevering with.
Regardless of numerous expletive-laden calls for from Trump since then – a lot of them on social media – that Tehran reopen the strait, Iran has not budged. It’s presently negotiating plans for the way forward for the waterway, by way of which greater than one-fifth of the world’s oil and pure fuel provides have been shipped earlier than the conflict, with Oman.
As a part of these negotiations, Iran introduced this week that it has agreed to a delivery route, which it should partially management, with Oman.
Whereas Trump has not too long ago claimed that the US has “full management” of the strait and that it’s open to vessels, delivery stays at an all-time low and Iran has continued to fireplace at any vessels attempting to go with out its permission.
Iran sees the strait as its essential piece of leverage within the conflict with the US, which Salah stated, Iran views as an “existential menace”.
Financial influence
- Iran: The conflict’s influence on Iran’s economic system has been extreme. The Iranian rial has in impact collapsed. Meals costs have surged amid the conflict, and the US blockade and renewed sanctions have hampered Iranian oil exports, with the blockade cutting oil income by no less than $6bn. Tehran’s economic system has lengthy been battered by US sanctions, though the delicate ceasefire supplied momentary reduction. Iran’s International Minister Abbas Araghchi stated final week that financial stress is a “rerun we all know by coronary heart” and that the nation is aware of the best way to survive it.
- US: US customers have additionally felt the stress of the conflict on the petrol pump, making the battle extremely unpopular. A July ballot by The Related Press revealed that two-thirds of People are towards the battle. Whereas many are inclined to neglect there’s a conflict, Summers stated, they do keep in mind it acutely when petrol costs rise. In states like California, gasoline costs doubled. That anger will doubtless translate right into a political backlash towards Republicans in November’s midterms, specialists say.
Relations with allies
- Iran: Iran’s focusing on of US army property in addition to each army and nonmilitary infrastructure in neighbouring Gulf states and Jordan has not made it standard regionally, specialists notice. Iran has hit infrastructure in Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman and Bahrain. These states have known as this a violation of their sovereignty. Nonetheless, Iran’s financial and political ties with China have held, as Beijing has managed a fragile dance by advocating towards sanctions on Iran whereas refraining from turning into totally entangled within the battle. Commerce relations with Russia additionally stay sturdy.
- US: The US has confronted reluctance from its NATO allies to again it up on this conflict. Regardless of being requested instantly by Trump, they’ve refused to hitch the conflict. Spain and Italy, specifically, have extremely criticised the battle, whereas Germany, Israel’s strongest ally in Europe, has performed the identical. France rejected calls to ship warships to implement the blockade. Gulf allies, Pakistan and Turkiye have all equally refused, whereas in Asia, Japan, Australia and South Korea all declined to get entangled. Gulf allies are additionally doubtless weighing the fact that it’s the US’s conflict on Iran which has brought on them to grow to be targets.
Navy capabilities
- Iran: US specialists say that claims Washington has degraded Iran’s army capabilities are right. A number of military bases have been struck whereas Iran’s ballistic missile stockpiles are down by about 82 p.c, in response to Trump. Nonetheless, Iran continues to be launching missiles and, whereas nuclear services have been broken, it nonetheless has possession of its enriched uranium stockpile. Consultants level out that Iran doubtless has an even bigger urge for food for an atomic weapon now than earlier than the conflict started. Tehran has additionally continued to provide and deploy its mass-produced, low-cost Shahed drones. An estimated 1,221 army personnel have been killed by April, though the actual toll is probably going greater.
- US: The US has misplaced 18 troopers and greater than 750 have been wounded. That’s “fairly low”, Summers stated. Nonetheless, US media experiences recommend the Pentagon has severely depleted stockpiles of a few of its strongest and most costly weapons – notably its Patriot defence missiles – one thing Washington denies. These missiles are solely produced within the dozens yearly and price tens of millions of {dollars} every. In August, the US signed a $22.9bn cope with producer Raytheon to spice up Tomahawk cruise missile manufacturing from 60 to greater than 1,000 yearly.
Is there an outright ‘victor’?
Observers say there’s not.
“Each of them haven’t achieved something,” Saleh of ANU stated, noting that the US has didn’t translate army superiority to precise good points regardless of being a “superpower” combating a “center energy”.
China and Russia are doubtless observing Washington’s weaknesses, making new army calculations within the occasion of a future battle with the US, he stated. That has implications for Taiwan, particularly because the US has now deployed its last aircraft carrier within the Pacific to the Center East. The shift leaves the US with out an plane service within the Western Pacific, regardless of Washington’s earlier strategic emphasis on the area.
“Iran surviving additionally doesn’t imply it’s a winner,” nevertheless, Saleh stated. “This is likely to be a defeat for the US, nevertheless it’s not a victory for Iran both.”
