Trump targets Iran’s trade lifelines — here are the countries most exposed

The U.S. introduced an “economic D-Day” campaign Monday to isolate Iran from the worldwide economic system, threatening penalties towards “enablers” that proceed doing enterprise with Tehran.

The transfer is a part of Washington’s bid to sever the commerce lifeline that has sustained Tehran’s economic system by means of almost six months of battle.

Whereas enforcement particulars are sketchy, the risk might nonetheless put the U.S. on a collision course with a few of Tehran’s main commerce companions.

China is the most important purchaser of Iranian oil and serves as a vital hyperlink to the worldwide economic system for Tehran, accounting for about 90% of its oil exports, according to the U.S. government.

China reported $9.96 billion in bilateral commerce with Iran in 2025, excluding the roughly $31.2 billion in unreported Iranian crude oil exports to China that 12 months, in keeping with the U.S.-China Financial and Safety Evaluate Fee.

Impartial Chinese language refiners take within the bulk of it, usually rebranded as Malaysian or Indonesian crude and settled by means of intermediaries outdoors the greenback system, in keeping with Kpler. The U.S. Treasury has sanctioned a number of of these refineries this 12 months for Iranian oil purchases, whereas sparing Chinese language monetary establishments.

Beijing has brazenly opposed U.S. sanctions towards Iran, arguing that financial strain is not going to resolve the disputes. In Might, China ordered domestic firms to disregard U.S. sanctions on 5 refiners linked to the Iranian oil commerce.

Whereas Beijing is unlikely to push again immediately on Washington’s sanctions push, it can “quietly step up compliance” amongst state banks and oil firms to keep away from getting caught within the internet, stated Dan Wang, China director at Eurasia Group, pointing to “a dichotomy between the official assertion and the non-public apply.”

“Chinese language authorities care extra about greenback entry in financing and market entry to the U.S.,” she stated.

The bilateral commerce amounted to round $28 billion in 2024, when the Emirates was its largest supply of imports, contributing over 30%, according to the World Trade Organization data. The UAE was additionally Iran’s third-largest export vacation spot, making up 12% of its shipments, totaling greater than $7 billion.

That relationship hit a snag final week because the UAE moved to droop all commerce and monetary transactions with Iran, following two ballistic missiles fired towards Emirati territory, considered one of which focused UAE-owned tankers.

Iran has relied on UAE banks and its monetary system to entry the world economic system by means of illicit, often murky transactions, and reducing off Iran would require extra forceful actions from Emirati authorities to crack down on opaque monetary and buying and selling exercise, in keeping with U.S.-based assume tank The Washington Institute.

“The vast majority of Iran’s transshipment, smuggling, and shadow banking exercise takes place in Dubai, so Washington should do what it might probably to assist the UAE’s nationwide leaders in Abu Dhabi persuade and cajole Dubai’s leaders to play ball,” Matthew Levitt, a former U.S. Treasury official, wrote in a note on Monday.

The Turkey-Iran bilateral commerce reached $5.7 billion in 2024, in keeping with the Turkish Ministry of Overseas Affairs, with Ankara exporting largely equipment and components, chemical and agricultural merchandise, whereas importing vitality merchandise from Tehran.

In the meantime, underneath a 25-year fuel provide contract between the 2 international locations that expired at the end of July, Turkey’s imports of Iranian gas spiked this 12 months whereas Iran’s share of Turkey’s complete pure fuel imports rose to 18.6%, in keeping with native media.

Whereas Ankara has sought to diversify toward other suppliers, increasing pipeline imports from Azerbaijan and Russia, it has, to date, not signaled that it intends to chop Iran off.

Iran renewed a five-year contract in March 2024 to produce Iraq with as much as almost 660 billion cubic ft of pure fuel a 12 months, and electrical energy imports from Iran accounted for greater than 30% of its electrical energy technology in 2023, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Iraq-Iran commerce reached greater than $10 billion in 2025, according to Reuters, with Tehran exporting meals, shopper items and different merchandise to the Iraqi market. The commerce has dwindled this 12 months amid elevated safety dangers within the area and intermittent disruptions alongside border crossings because the battle began in late February.

Iraq reportedly pays Iran round $4 billion to $5 billion a 12 months for pure fuel for electrical energy technology. The contemporary U.S. sanctions might curtail Baghdad’s funds for Iranian vitality.

India, amongst Iran’s prime 5 buying and selling companions, has seen its bilateral commerce with Iran fall in recent times to round $1.6 billion within the 12 months ending March 2026, in keeping with India’s Department of Commerce, down from $2.3 billion within the 12 months by means of to March 2023.

New Delhi primarily exports rice, tea, sugar and prescription drugs to Iran, and imports dry and contemporary fruits from Iran.

In April, India resumed importing crude oil from Iran following a seven-year halt, after the U.S. quickly lifted sanctions on Iranian crude exports.

However these trades now will probably be examined if Washington makes good on its risk to sanction any entity, together with Indian refiners, which have procured Iranian vitality.