Iran has threatened to retaliate in opposition to any nation that joins the USA’ “financial battle” in opposition to it, as diplomatic efforts to finish the months-long battle have stalled and transport by the Strait of Hormuz has drastically decreased.
The warning from Iran’s high safety official on Saturday got here because the US plans to announce new sanctions on Monday that would additional pressure the struggling Iranian economic system.
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So, how can Tehran retaliate?
Right here’s what we all know:
What has Iran mentioned?
On Saturday, Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s Supreme Nationwide Safety Council, advised the IRIB state broadcaster that Iran was interesting to all nations all over the world, together with its neighbours, to not be a part of the US’s “financial battle”.
“Any nation that takes half in imposing financial restrictions on us will likely be considered an enemy,” he mentioned, warning of “seismic” retaliation.
Rezaei additionally warned Iran’s neighbours that in the event that they participated in Trump’s financial warfare, “not even a drop of oil” would depart the Gulf area, together with by different export routes away from the Hormuz chokepoint by which a fifth of worldwide oil and gasoline exports go in peacetime.
Iran has attacked US navy installations and civilian places because the battle started on February 28 , on the pretext that Tehran was on the verge of getting nuclear bombs. That declare was debunked by the US intelligence company, in addition to the UN’s IAEA nuclear watchdog.
The US operates navy services in additional than a dozen places throughout the Center East and North Africa, together with in Gulf nations, reminiscent of Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. 1000’s of US troopers are additionally stationed throughout the area, together with in Jordan.
Rezaei’s remarks got here days after US President Donald Trump announced that his authorities would undertake the “most crushing financial operation” but in opposition to Iran. He additionally pledged “large financial penalties” for any nation that provides Iran “any sort of lifeline”.
The US Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, echoed his threats the next day, saying, “You’re both with us or in opposition to us”. He additionally urged cooperation from China, which buys greater than 80 p.c of Iran’s oil shipments.
On Sunday, Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian mentioned: Iran is “in a full-scale financial, navy and safety battle” with the US. He mentioned Washington falsely predicted earlier than the battle that it could fall amid US aggression and change into like Venezuela.
“The enemy had assessed that if Iran falls, it’ll change into Venezuela,” he mentioned in a televised speech.
“Not solely did it not occur, but it surely turned an influence that amazed the world with its resistance, solidarity and cohesion.”
How can Iran retaliate?
Rezaei described Iran’s technique as a three-stage sequence, beginning with talks with nations cooperating with the US to de-escalate tensions.
“After all, we’ll first negotiate with them. We are going to maintain talks and inform them to step apart and distance themselves from the USA.”
“But when they don’t act, we’ll strike. We are going to goal that nation’s pursuits,” he added.
Rezaei’s warning that different export routes exterior Hormuz could possibly be focused, most likely factors to the Bab al-Mandeb Strait gateway to the Crimson Sea. Saudi Arabia has used it to export its oil following the blockade of Hormuz. Tehran imposed a blockade on Hormuz in response to the US battle and has since used it as leverage in negotiations with Washington to finish the battle. The US has put Iranian ports underneath a naval blockade, impacting Tehran’s worldwide commerce.
Hamidreza Azizi, a researcher on Iran on the Clingendael Institute, mentioned in a submit on X on Saturday: “Tehran seems to be attempting to ascertain deterrence at an earlier stage, by signalling that even preparations for an assault might set off an Iranian response.”
Azizi mentioned two parts within the new “offensive doctrine” are rising: preemption, which is geared toward stopping a perceived risk from materialising; and disproportionate retaliation, which is geared toward elevating the price of any assault that does happen.
Iran’s warning to Gulf states becoming a member of Trump’s financial battle is “primarily an ultimatum” to the Gulf states, he mentioned, including that Iran’s military-security institution “is more and more making ready for an additional spherical of escalation”.
Will Iran’s neighbours be a part of the US in its financial warfare?
Gulf nations, that are Iran’s neighbours and likewise US allies, have more and more been discovering themselves caught in the midst of the battle. So it’s unclear if they are going to be a part of Washington in economically threatening Iran additional.
Iran’s assaults on Gulf nations have impacted their economies, which use Hormuz for many of their exports, together with oil and gasoline.
Whereas Gulf nations have condemned Iranian assaults on their territories, analysts say Gulf states intently aligned with Washington recognise {that a} functioning political relationship with Iran is critical attributable to its shut proximity.
The UAE restored diplomatic relations with Iran in 2022 however imposed a commerce embargo final week after accusing Tehran of a missile assault. Iran denies accountability.
Saudi Arabia and Iran agreed to normalise ties in 2023 underneath a deal brokered by China, each seemingly a calculation that engagement with Iran was safer than everlasting confrontation.
Whereas the Iranian assaults on Gulf states have examined this concept, they haven’t essentially shattered it.
“Finally, Gulf nations can’t change geography. They must stay and work alongside Iran,” Simon Mabon, a professor of worldwide relations at Lancaster College told Al Jazeera in an interview final month. “They don’t need the instability that might come from the autumn of the Islamic Republic. I believe some Gulf states have pushed for tougher strikes – to not precipitate its collapse, however to weaken the extra hardline parts of the IRGC.”
Additionally final month, Trita Parsi, government vice chairman of the Quincy Institute for Accountable Statecraft, told Al Jazeera that confidence in diplomacy to finish the disaster stays low however, on the similar time, no nation within the area “can afford one other lengthy battle”.
In consequence, that “will preserve them away from a totally uncontrolled stage of escalation”, and depleted world oil inventories will make a protracted confrontation between the US and Iran unattractive.
“All inventories haven’t been capable of be replenished” throughout the ceasefire, Parsi added. “We’re at a a lot decrease stage globally.”
What we find out about worldwide sanctions in opposition to Iran over earlier a long time?
Since 1979, Iran has confronted sanctions from the US and different nations within the West. The United Nations has additionally imposed sanctions on Tehran.
The US first imposed sanctions after the 1979 Islamic Revolution that toppled the pro-Western ruler Reza Shah Pahlavi. Washington mentioned that was in response to Iranian college students taking People hostage on the US embassy in Tehran.
Washington additionally halted oil imports from Iran and froze $12bn in Iranian property following the revolution. Iranian merchandise have been banned from import into the US, other than small presents, informational materials, foodstuffs and a few carpets.
In 1995, President Invoice Clinton issued government orders stopping US firms from investing in Iranian oil and gasoline and buying and selling with Iran. He banned US commerce with Iran and funding. A yr later, the US Congress handed a regulation requiring the US authorities to impose sanctions on international corporations investing greater than $20m a yr in Iran’s power sector.
Then in December 2006, the United Nations Safety Council, whose members embody China, Russia, the UK and France, imposed sanctions on Iran’s commerce in nuclear-energy-related supplies and expertise and froze the property of people and corporations concerned in associated actions.
The sanctions have been primarily an effort to curtail Iran’s rising nuclear capability, however whereas programmes to counterpoint uranium have been stopped in 2002, they restarted in late 2005. In subsequent years, the UN toughened the sanctions and imposed extra. The European Union additionally adopted swimsuit.
In 2015, Iran signed a nuclear deal – the Joint Complete Plan of Motion (JCPOA) – with the US, EU, China, France, Germany, Russia and the UK. The deal put a cap on Iran’s nuclear programme in return for the whole lifting of sanctions.
Nevertheless, in 2018, throughout his first time period, Trump introduced the US withdrawal from the nuclear treaty and reimposed all sanctions on Iran that have been lifted underneath the treaty as a part of his “most strain” marketing campaign in opposition to Tehran.
In 2019, the Trump administration designated Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) a ‘International Terrorist Organisation’. Moreover, he imposed sanctions focusing on petrochemicals, metals (metal, aluminium, copper) and senior Iranian officers.
Throughout Trump’s first time period, Qassem Soleimani, the pinnacle of the IRGC’s elite Quds Power, was assassinated in a drone strike in Baghdad in 2020. The US additionally imposed further sanctions on Iran.
The Biden administration, in energy from 2021 to 2025, stored in place most US sanctions.
Final September, UN sanctions have been reimposed attributable to Iran’s nuclear programme when the UNSC voted against completely lifting financial sanctions.
