New Delhi:
As India marks its third Nationwide Area Day, celebrating the success of Chandrayaan-3 and the nation’s increasing ambitions in orbit and past, a brand new detailed tutorial examine from two of Europe’s most revered establishments has thrown up an uncomfortable query for the Indian house institution.
A 2026 College of Cambridge examine finds India’s per-kilogram launch prices are 4 instances increased than America’s and, in actual fact, the most costly on this planet.
A peer-reviewed paper revealed within the revered Elsevier journal Economics Letters by economists Alessio Terzi of the College of Cambridge and Francesco Nicoli of Politecnico di Torino, Turin, Italy’s oldest technical college, suggests the reply could also be way more difficult than the favored narrative would recommend. Utilizing what the authors describe as a novel database masking greater than 6,740 rocket launches between 1960 and 2025, the researchers conclude that India’s common price of launching one kilogram of payload to Low Earth Orbit in 2025 was about $13,302 per kilogram, the very best amongst main spacefaring nations studied. By comparability, america recorded the bottom price at $3,225 per kilogram. This implies India’s per kilogram launches price virtually 4 instances increased than America’s.
The discovering is putting as a result of it immediately contradicts some of the extensively repeated claims related to India’s house programme. For many years, ISRO has been cited globally as a mannequin of frugal engineering. From launching missions at a fraction of Western prices to standard comparisons between house missions and on a regular basis bills, the picture of India attaining extra for much less has turn out to be deeply embedded within the public creativeness.
Such comparisons have typically formed public notion. In 2014, Prime Minister Narendra Modi stated, “A one-km auto rickshaw experience in Ahmedabad takes Rs 10, and India reached Mars at Rs 7 per km by Mangalyaan, which is admittedly wonderful,” whereas talking about India’s expertise pool and its potential to turn out to be one of many high most international locations on this planet. At instances, such comparisons have arguably carried out the programme’s public picture few favours.
On August 21, Prime Minister Narendra Modi interacted with CEOs and founders of 20 Indian house startups, the place he referred to as for creating an ecosystem and an surroundings the place, when the world thinks of house, it appears in the direction of India. He stated that India’s house sector can act as a magnet to draw world expertise, firms and funding to the nation.
The Cambridge and Turin researchers argue that when launch economics are examined by way of the lens of price per kilogram delivered to orbit, India emerges not as the most affordable however as the most costly amongst main launch suppliers.
The examine’s headline discovering is stark. Whereas the worldwide common launch price in 2025 stood at $3,868 per kilogram, america averaged $3,225 per kilogram, Japan $5,287, China $5,809, Russia $6,682 and Europe $9,897. India topped the checklist at $13,302 per kilogram.
The authors themselves acknowledge that the conclusion could seem counterintuitive. “The very excessive determine for India could be counterintuitive because it stands in stark distinction with the narrative of the nation’s frugal house programme,” the paper states. The researchers argue that the reason lies in rocket dimension. India’s launch autos usually carry smaller payloads, that means fastened prices are unfold over fewer kilograms. Because of this, the obvious price per kilogram turns into considerably increased regardless of probably decrease absolute mission prices.
The paper goes past a easy comparability of launch costs. It examines many years of launch exercise and makes an attempt to grasp how expertise, launch frequency and reusability drive down prices over time. In response to the researchers, solely america and Europe present statistically vital enhancements in launch prices by way of what economists name expertise curves. India, China, Russia and Japan don’t present a equally vital sample within the interval analysed, although China is a serious house energy with its personal house station, the one nation on this planet to have one.
For India, the examine suggests {that a} comparatively low launch cadence could also be a part of the explanation. International locations that launch extra continuously be taught sooner, industrialise extra effectively and distribute fastened infrastructure prices over a bigger variety of missions. The USA has benefited enormously from this dynamic, significantly by way of SpaceX.
This conclusion arrives at a delicate time for ISRO. The company has confronted a troublesome section after setbacks involving its workhorse, the Polar Satellite tv for pc Launch Car (PSLV) rocket, and a 12 months through which ISRO has seen no profitable launches. The attrition of 125 scientists additionally made headlines. The report due to this fact lands as greater than a tutorial debate. For a lot of observers, it raises questions concerning the future competitiveness of India’s launch sector.
ISRO Chairman Dr V Narayanan, nevertheless, has firmly rejected the paper’s conclusions. Chatting with NDTV, he stated merely that the paper used “mistaken knowledge.” Nonetheless, no detailed clarification was supplied by ISRO concerning which particular datasets, assumptions or calculations had been inaccurate. The examine itself states that its estimates are constructed utilizing public sources together with authorities studies, tutorial analysis and public documentation, which had been standardised into comparable 2024 greenback values.
Chatting with NDTV, former ISRO Chairman Dr S Somanath, now a member of the Board of the Reserve Financial institution of India, has additionally challenged the interpretation. In response to him, price per kilogram doesn’t inform the entire story. He notes that for a 4.5 tonne spacecraft, India paid roughly the identical launch price to an American supplier as a Launch Car Mark-3 (LVM-3) mission would have price, suggesting that Indian launch providers are broadly akin to world opponents.
In Dr Somanath’s evaluation, SpaceX advantages from decrease price per kilogram largely due to its huge scale and inside utilisation. “Value per kg for Falcon 9 is decrease than ours, however they do not go on the advantages to anybody however use it for their very own launches,” he argues. He provides that whereas Indian launchers should not essentially cheaper than everyone else, they aren’t excessively costly both.
India’s house regulator and promoter, the Indian Nationwide Area Promotion and Authorisation Centre (InSpace), and the Indian Area Affiliation (ISPA), each declined to touch upon the examine.
The talk highlights a longstanding downside in evaluating worldwide launch prices. India’s precise launch economics stay opaque. Not like some industrial suppliers, ISRO doesn’t publicly disclose complete mission price buildings. Even at the moment, some of the continuously cited official references stays a authorities response introduced within the Indian Parliament in 2018. In response to these figures, a PSLV mission was estimated at round Rs 204 crore, whereas a Launch Car Mark-3 (earlier referred to as GSLV Mk III) mission price roughly Rs 434 crore. These estimates are a number of years previous and should not seize the complete price construction related to infrastructure, workforce and analysis expenditure, although they will not be far off the mark both.
The dearth of clear price accounting complicates comparisons. India doesn’t usually insure authorities launches. Losses arising from unsuccessful missions are in the end absorbed by the general public exchequer. Scientists, engineers and assist personnel typically work concurrently throughout a number of programmes, making the attribution of wage and infrastructure prices to particular person missions troublesome.
This subject was highlighted in discussions surrounding the NASA-ISRO Artificial Aperture Radar mission, or NISAR. On paper, NASA’s reported expenditure approached $1.2 billion, in contrast with India’s roughly $300 million contribution. Nonetheless, consultants like Dr Paul Rosen of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) famous to NDTV that direct comparisons might be deceptive, as Indian accounting practices typically distribute long-term infrastructure and personnel prices throughout a number of missions.
What the Cambridge paper unquestionably demonstrates is the diploma to which SpaceX has reshaped world launch economics. The examine states that america at the moment enjoys a considerable price benefit over all main opponents.
The explanations should not troublesome to establish. SpaceX has reworked the economics of entry to house by way of reusable rockets. Its Falcon 9 first levels routinely land and fly once more, dramatically decreasing launch prices. The corporate has accomplished a whole lot of missions and conducts launches at a cadence unmatched anyplace else on this planet, typically a number of in a single day.
The researchers observe that American dominance has turn out to be so overwhelming that america accounted for greater than 75 to 80 per cent of world payload launched into orbit throughout current years.
The broader geopolitical implications concern the authors as a lot as economics. In a separate paper titled “Outsourcing the Ultimate Frontier: SpaceX, the East India Firm and the Political Financial system of Area,” Alessio Terzi warns that reliance on a single dominant personal firm might create strategic vulnerabilities. In response to estimates cited in that work, SpaceX was accountable for roughly 75 per cent of world payload despatched to orbit in 2025. The paper raises the chance that such dependence might sooner or later turn out to be a geopolitical bargaining software.
Terzi factors out that “the result’s that, in line with our estimations, one single American firm, SpaceX, was accountable for 75 per cent of world payload to orbit in 2025. Going ahead, it’s not implausible {that a} US administration would possibly resolve to weaponise this dependency or use it as a bargaining chip to coerce different nations.”
Whether or not SpaceX turns into what Terzi calls “the East India Firm of the house financial system” is but to be recognized, however with a trillion-dollar valuation, Elon Musk definitely instructions the sort of world attain the comparability implies.
That warning resonates strongly with international locations searching for strategic autonomy in house. India’s problem is due to this fact a fragile balancing act. On one hand, policymakers need an unbiased launch functionality for nationwide safety and technological sovereignty. Alternatively, world economics more and more favour large-scale reusable techniques that profit from huge launch frequency.
The distinction with SpaceX is especially putting. Based in 2002, the corporate now employs roughly 22,000 individuals and carried out round 165 Falcon 9 rocket launches in 2025 alone. ISRO, established in 1969 and using roughly 16,000 individuals, has carried out about 105 launches in its total 57-year historical past. India itself has used Falcon 9 launch providers twice, underscoring the fact that even spacefaring nations typically flip to the American big.
Maybe an important lesson rising from the examine considerations reusability. The researchers repeatedly level to reusable techniques because the principal cause behind america’ price benefit. India has experimented with Reusable Launch Car (RLV) applied sciences and efficiently carried out expertise demonstrations. Nonetheless, the nation has but to put an orbital reusable rocket into service. The deliberate Subsequent Technology Launch Car, envisioned as a reusable system, stays beneath improvement.
In the meantime, personal Indian firm Skyroot Aerospace is making an attempt to construct a industrial foothold by way of its Vikram sequence of rockets. The corporate has not publicly disclosed launch costs for Vikram 1, which it efficiently flew in July, nevertheless it hopes to seize a share of the rising small satellite tv for pc market.
All this issues as a result of the stakes are huge. Union Science and Expertise Minister Dr Jitendra Singh has repeatedly said that India’s house financial system might develop from roughly $8 billion to $9 billion at the moment to as a lot as $40 billion to $45 billion over the approaching decade.
Whether or not that ambition might be achieved whereas sustaining competitiveness in launch providers is prone to turn out to be one of many defining questions going through India’s house sector. In any other case, this might stay an aspirational mirage.
On Nationwide Area Day, due to this fact, the Cambridge and Turin evaluation ought to maybe be seen not as an assault on ISRO however as a wake-up name. The examine doesn’t deny India’s extraordinary achievements. It does, nevertheless, problem a cherished assumption. The researchers argue that launch economics are altering quickly and that scale, launch cadence and reusability more and more decide who wins the race to orbit.
For an organisation that constructed its world fame on doing extra with much less, the message is unmistakable. India should be able to outstanding engineering on restricted budgets, but when the world’s launch market is being reshaped by reusable rockets and industrial-scale operations, the subsequent chapter of India’s house story could require not simply frugality, however a elementary rethink of how rockets are constructed, flown and reused.
This discovering arrives at the same time as ISRO awaits its first profitable rocket mission of the 12 months.
