Pakistan’s dilemma is that its strategic worth to Saudi Arabia will increase if it turns into helpful past South Asia. However the extra deeply it enters the rivalries of the Crimson Sea and Horn of Africa, the larger the chance that it turns into entangled in conflicts that aren’t its personal
Pakistan’s determination to deepen defence cooperation with Somalia could appear to be a modest military-training association. However it’s probably way more consequential. Signed in Islamabad on August 4, the bilateral defence cooperation settlement covers counter-terrorism, army coaching, exchanges and functionality constructing. Three days after forging this pact, the nation signed the Mecca Joint Defence Settlement with Saudi Arabia and Turkey, establishing a brand new framework for collective safety.
The timing is hanging. Pakistan will not be historically a serious safety actor within the Horn of Africa. But Somalia sits on the intersection of the Gulf, Red Sea, and western Indian Ocean, exactly the area the place Saudi Arabia and Turkey are increasing their strategic footprints and the place their pursuits more and more compete with these of the UAE.
For Pakistan, subsequently, Somalia could also be much less about Somalia itself than about the place Islamabad needs to place itself within the rising safety structure of the western Indian Ocean and Crimson Sea.
Why is Pakistan all of a sudden wanting in direction of the Horn of Africa?
Pakistan will not be a newcomer to Somalia. Its army performed a big position within the UN operation within the East African nation within the early Nineties. Pakistani troops have been among the many final worldwide contingents to depart Mogadishu in 1995. However that historical past shouldn’t be overstated.
Extra from ExplainersPakistan was not among the many principal African troop contributors to AMISOM (African Union Mission in Somalia) or ATMIS (African Union Transition Mission in Somalia) and has not been a serious financier of the African Union’s subsequent safety efforts in opposition to Al-Shabaab, an Al-Qaeda-affiliated militant group. The heavy combating over the previous twenty years was borne primarily by African states resembling Uganda, Burundi, Kenya, Ethiopia, and Djibouti.
Pakistani UN peacekeepers from the Tirwanja particular forces unload their weapons contained in the Pakistani headquarters in central Mogadishu after a patrol on November 20 1994. The Pakistani army performed a big position within the UN operation within the East African nation. File photograph/Reuters
What does Pakistan carry to Somalia’s safety desk?
Pakistan’s current provide brings an skilled army institution, with counter-insurgency expertise, skilled army coaching and a defence trade able to supplying comparatively inexpensive gear. For a Somali army nonetheless being rebuilt, these are engaging belongings.
There are additionally studies of Somali curiosity in Pakistani JF-17 fighter plane, reportedly with Saudi and Turkish help. Such info must be handled cautiously till an precise contract emerges. However, the chance illustrates the bigger logic: Pakistan can provide Somalia army capabilities whereas concurrently strengthening its personal strategic relevance to Saudi Arabia.
Why is Saudi Arabia central to Pakistan’s Somalia gambit?
That is the place the Saudi connection turns into decisive.
Somalia concluded a military-cooperation settlement with Saudi Arabia earlier this 12 months. Riyadh has deepened its engagement with Sudan and is in search of a larger position within the politics and safety of the Crimson Sea. Saudi Arabia’s concern will not be merely terrorism. It’s the safety of the Crimson Sea, the Bab el-Mandeb and the maritime approaches to the Arabian Peninsula, and the necessity to restrain the growth of UAE affect. Pakistan matches naturally into this effort.
The Mecca agreement with Turkey and Pakistan offers Riyadh with two completely different however complementary companions. Turkey brings a quickly increasing defence trade, drones, naval capabilities, and a rising strategic presence in Africa. Pakistan brings a big standing army, operational expertise, manpower, coaching capabilities and a longtime defence-production relationship with Saudi Arabia.
For Islamabad, this is a chance to transform its longstanding defence relationship with Saudi Arabia into wider geopolitical relevance.
Pakistan has historically relied on Saudi financial and political help. The connection has advanced. Riyadh more and more expects companions to contribute to regional safety somewhat than merely obtain help. Pakistan can now reveal such utility. Its army experience will be deployed by means of coaching, capability constructing and probably gear gross sales with out requiring a big Pakistani fight deployment.
That distinction is vital. Pakistan is unlikely to ship substantial forces to Somalia to combat Al-Shabaab. It has neither the strategic requirement nor the assets for an additional main abroad army dedication. What it could possibly present is a safety multiplier: officers, trainers, doctrine, gear and maybe air and naval capabilities.
There may be additionally a maritime rationale. Pakistan already participates within the Mixed Maritime Forces, together with counter-piracy and maritime-security operations within the Arabian Sea and adjoining waters. Its naval pursuits naturally prolong in direction of the Gulf of Aden. Somalia consequently offers Pakistan with a geographical bridge between its Arabian Sea pursuits and the broader Crimson Sea safety setting.
Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif shakes palms with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman upon his arrival in Mecca, Saudi Arabia, August 7. For Pakistan, the Mecca Settlement is a chance to transform its longstanding defence relationship with Saudi Arabia into wider geopolitical relevance. Reuters
May Pakistan’s Horn of Africa push result in strategic overreach?
Pakistan should tread fastidiously. Its involvement in Somalia dangers being interpreted as an extension of Saudi-Turkish competitors somewhat than an unbiased Pakistani initiative. The Horn is already crowded with exterior actors: Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Turkey, Qatar, Egypt, america, China and others, every pursuing overlapping however competing pursuits. Somalia itself is in search of to diversify its partnerships, partly to keep away from extreme dependence on anybody exterior energy.
For Pakistan, the principal hazard is strategic overextension. Turning into a visual army associate in Somalia might create expectations that Islamabad will finally play roles in Sudan, Libya or elsewhere within the Arab-African strategic area. Pakistan has neither the monetary capability nor the geopolitical freedom to turn into Saudi Arabia’s army instrument throughout each theatre.
A member of Somali authorities forces walks whereas working to safe the world the place al Shabaab militants stormed a high-security underground jail in Mogadishu, Somalia, October 5, 2025. Pakistan is unlikely to ship substantial forces to Somalia to combat Al-Shabaab. File photograph/Reuters
There may be, nevertheless, a big alternative. Pakistan has usually struggled to translate its army relationship with Saudi Arabia into broader financial and geopolitical affect. The Horn of Africa offers it exactly such a gap. Somalia gives a comparatively low-cost entry level right into a strategically vital area, whereas its partnership with Turkey offers Pakistan entry to a technologically succesful defence associate.
The query is subsequently not whether or not Pakistan will “combat” Al-Shabaab. It’s whether or not Islamabad is starting to make use of defence diplomacy as an instrument of wider geopolitical positioning.
The Somalia settlement means that it’s.
