PAKISTAN is at present within the international highlight for mediating between america and Iran. Islamabad’s rigorous mediation efforts helped carry a few much-needed ceasefire between the US and Iran in April, which culminated within the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding in June 2026. Analysts see the present mediatory place as a brand new shift in Pakistan’s overseas coverage priorities, with Islamabad trying to claim itself as a center energy and a related strategic participant in Center Jap geopolitics. Nevertheless, a complete historic evaluation reveals that mediation has remained certainly one of Pakistan’s most important overseas coverage imperatives.
Pakistan has lengthy adopted an energetic technique of mediation to forestall, handle, and settle disputes within the Center East and inside its speedy western neighbourhood. Removed from being a passive regional actor, Islamabad has typically positioned itself as a mediator in conflicts starting from great-power rivalries to intra-Muslim issues. This strategy relies on a deliberate overseas coverage calculus decided by geography, strategic alliances, and the necessity to shield nationwide pursuits whereas increasing diplomatic affect past South Asia.
The logic behind Pakistan’s mediating position
The first strategic motive behind Pakistan’s mediation diplomacy is the necessity to maintain regional disputes from spilling over onto its personal borders. In contrast to nice powers, which can strategy mediation largely for geopolitical or ideological causes, Pakistan’s safety is instantly influenced by conflicts in its close to neighbourhood. Regional conflicts have traditionally been accompanied by refugee flows, cross-border terrorism, interruption of commerce routes, arms trafficking, narcotics smuggling, and humanitarian crises, all of which have imposed vital financial and safety prices on Pakistan. For Islamabad, mediation, subsequently, constitutes a preventive tactic meant to comprise issues earlier than they evolve into better challenges to Pakistan itself.
Afghanistan is a obtrusive instance of this safety rationale. For over 4 many years, Afghanistan’s instability has had far-reaching implications for Pakistan, together with influx of hundreds of thousands of refugees, elevated terrorism and border insecurity, and enhanced financial burden. Because of this, Pakistan expended huge diplomatic capital in selling the intra-Afghan peace course of, in addition to talks between the Taliban and the US. Islamabad’s coordination and facilitation resulted within the 2020 Doha Agreement. These efforts had been primarily motivated by Islamabad’s need to assemble a comparatively secure Afghanistan able to denying house to transnational terrorist organisations and minimising fears of long-term instability alongside the Pakistan-Afghan border. Thus, mediation is a strategic funding in Pakistan’s home safety.
A complete historic evaluation reveals that mediation has remained certainly one of Pakistan’s most important overseas coverage imperatives.
An identical rationale helps Pakistan’s efforts to defuse tensions within the Center East, significantly efforts to cut back tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Pakistan shares a prolonged border with Iran whereas additionally sustaining robust strategic ties with Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states. The signing of the Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement in 2025 has additional elevated Pakistan’s geopolitical stakes within the Center Jap safety atmosphere, as has the current mutual defence pact with Turkiye and Saudi Arabia. Any escalation between Tehran and Riyadh might place Pakistan in a dangerous strategic place. These confrontations have typically uncovered Islamabad to opposing geopolitical realities, in addition to exacerbating native sectarian tensions. The Nineteen Nineties period of sectarian violence has had a major influence on Pakistan’s strategic pondering. Islamabad doesn’t need to enable house for one more wave of sectarian violence influenced by the Center Jap safety atmosphere.
This is the reason Pakistan has repeatedly pursued a coverage of passive or energetic mediation between Saudi Arabia and Iran. For example in 2016, when tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran escalated as a result of execution of a well-known Saudi Shia cleric, Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr, Pakistan hurried to utilise shuttle diplomacy to defuse tensions. Pakistan’s then-prime minister Nawaz Sharif and chief of military employees Raheel Sharif advocated holding direct discussions between Saudi Arabia and Iran in Islamabad and really useful that each international locations set up focal individuals to maintain communication strains open for dialogue. These actions had been extensively thought-about as an efficient software for decreasing tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran.
Equally, in June 2017, a Saudi-led quartet (additionally together with the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Egypt) broke diplomatic relations and carried out a rigorous land, air, and sea blockade in opposition to Qatar. Saudi Arabia put huge strain on Pakistan to take Riyadh’s aspect. Fairly than supporting the blockade, Pakistan maintained its impartial posture and initiated a joint diplomatic push with Kuwait and Turkiye to ease tensions between Qatar and the Saudi-led quad. Though the makes an attempt didn’t yield vital outcomes, they did scale back strain on Pakistan’s overseas coverage.
Equally, following strikes on Saudi oil websites in 2019, the then-prime minister Imran Khan performed shuttle diplomacy between Tehran and Riyadh in an effort to ease tensions and foster dialogue. Though Pakistan was not the first architect of the final word Saudi-Iranian rapprochement, its diplomatic efforts highlighted Islamabad’s choice for regional de-escalation over bloc politics. Extra lately, Pakistan’s co-mediation with Qatar in supporting US-Iran negotiations below the Islamabad MoU demonstrated its broader objective of stopping one other doubtlessly destabilising battle in its western neighbourhood.
Secondly, Pakistan’s mediation diplomacy strengthens its strategic relevance inside an more and more aggressive worldwide system. As international politics grows extra polarised, center powers search affect by way of diplomatic relatively than coercive means. Pakistan positions itself as a accountable regional accomplice or web safety stabiliser, able to sustaining communication strains in conditions the place direct dialogue has develop into politically difficult. Islamabad believes that profitable mediation in regional conflicts can enhance Pakistan’s diplomatic profile by presenting it as a proactive relatively than reactive actor in regional disputes. That is particularly related within the context of worldwide preferences to take a look at Pakistan by way of the safety and counterterrorism lenses. Mediation permits Islamabad to alter international perceptions by demonstrating diplomatic capacity and a dedication to peaceable battle settlement.
Pakistan additionally desires to reveal its strategic worth to main powers by way of mediation. Excessive-profile facilitation operations, resembling organising Henry Kissinger’s secret 1971 go to to Beijing, highlighted Pakistan’s capacity to bridge the hole between Washington and Beijing. As of right this moment, Beijing recognises Pakistan’s facilitation efforts, which have improved its standing in Washington and Beijing.
Islamabad has been constantly searching for strategic goodwill within the worldwide neighborhood. States that efficiently facilitate negotiations regularly gather diplomatic capital, which might later be used to realize political help, strengthen bilateral relations, or enhance affect inside multilateral establishments. Pakistan’s energetic participation in facilitating dialogue in Afghanistan, and inspiring regional de-escalation within the Center East, permits it to strengthen ties with a variety of worldwide actors, together with the US, China, Gulf states, Central Asian republics, and Muslim-majority international locations. The diplomatic goodwill broadens Pakistan’s overseas coverage choices whereas decreasing the probability of strategic isolation.
Islamabad believes that an energetic mediatory position in regional conflicts can shield and additional safe Pakistan’s long-term financial pursuits. Regional instability discourages overseas direct funding, interrupts commerce corridors, will increase worldwide commerce insurance coverage prices, and causes massive infrastructure tasks to be delayed. As Pakistan strives to remodel itself right into a regional connectivity hub by way of tasks just like the China-Pakistan Financial Hall (CPEC), peace in neighbouring areas has develop into an financial necessity relatively than a diplomatic aspiration. Stability in Afghanistan is important for growing overland commerce with Central Asia, whereas decrease tensions between the Gulf states and Iran can enhance the safety of Pakistan’s power imports, and improve the utility of Gwadar port. Because of this, mediation not directly helps to create an exterior atmosphere that promotes financial development and regional integration for Islamabad. Moreover, efficient diplomatic engagement can enhance buyers’ confidence by portraying Pakistan as a stabilising relatively than destabilising regional actor. Worldwide buyers typically want areas with political certainty and amicable interstate relations.
Lastly, Pakistan’s mediation efforts are motivated by its total diplomatic identification. Since independence, succeeding governments have repeatedly prioritised peaceable battle decision, negotiation, and negotiated agreements of their official overseas coverage rhetoric. Particular person mediation initiatives are undoubtedly formed by geopolitical objectives, however Pakistan has typically depicted itself as a rustic keen to offer good workplaces each time conflicts endanger regional peace and worldwide safety. Whether or not facilitating dialogue in Afghanistan, encouraging Saudi-Iran engagement, or launching a diplomatic initiative to defuse tensions between the US and Iran, Islamabad has sought to place itself as a bridge between competing actors relatively than a participant in regional rivalries.
The historic report
Pakistan’s diplomatic position as a profitable mediator or back-channel facilitator began in late 1969 when Islamabad facilitated the US-China rapprochement. Pakistan facilitated a secret historic go to of Henry Kissinger to Beijing. The go to paved the way in which for US-China diplomatic and financial engagement, which dramatically reshaped Chilly Conflict geopolitics. This episode stays a typical profitable instance of Pakistan utilizing its contacts to realize a major diplomatic consequence.
In Afghanistan’s context, Pakistan was a key participant within the 1988 Geneva Accords, alongside Afghanistan, the Soviet Union, and america. The accords in the end resulted within the evacuation of Soviet forces from Afghanistan’s territory. This consequence is extensively recognised as Pakistan’s most important multilateral diplomatic achievement. More moderen initiatives have produced combined outcomes. Pakistan facilitated the 2015 Murree peace talks, which had been the primary publicly acknowledged direct engagement between the Afghan authorities and the Afghan Taliban. Nevertheless the method finally halted. All through the protracted Afghan peace course of (2009-2020), Pakistan repeatedly promoted negotiations and backed the Doha Settlement. Islamabad’s preliminary coordination and efforts to carry the Afghan Taliban and the US to the negotiation desk finally resulted in a US-Taliban pact. Nevertheless, Pakistan’s efforts didn’t end in a complete intra-Afghan settlement.
Limits of Pakistan’s mediation
Regardless of Pakistan’s lengthy historical past of selling dialogue and offering good workplaces in regional and worldwide conflicts, its total success price stays low. In keeping with a qualitative evaluation of Pakistan’s mediation report, solely about one-third of its initiatives have resulted in concrete diplomatic outcomes, with the bulk specializing in confidence-building, sustaining communication channels, or stopping additional deterioration of fighters’ relationships relatively than attaining complete battle decision. This decrease success price doesn’t replicate lack of diplomatic experience, however relatively the institutional and structural limits Pakistan faces.
One of many essential points is that Pakistan regularly mediates extremely advanced disputes. Conflicts such because the intra-Afghan battle, exterior invasions in Afghanistan, Saudi-Iran tensions, Center Jap conflicts, and US-Iran tensions contain numerous stakeholders with competing strategic objectives that can not be resolved solely by exterior mediation. Mediators can facilitate discourse, however they can’t compel opposing events to compromise when the political prices of concessions are excessively excessive. Because of this, Pakistan’s participation has regularly been restricted to facilitating negotiations, with final choices decided primarily by fighters on their very own political and strategic calculations.
One other necessary restraint is Pakistan’s low diplomatic leverage compared to different regional and extra-regional international locations. Profitable mediation regularly necessitates the capability to supply financial incentives, safety ensures, reconstruction help, or political assurances that encourage opposing events to succeed in tough concessions. International locations with considerably extra monetary sources, political energy, and diplomatic networks to maintain long-term peace initiatives embrace the US, China, Norway, Qatar, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia. In distinction, Pakistan usually focuses on persuasion, trusted relationships, and geographical familiarity relatively than financial incentives. Whereas these property are useful, they’re largely inadequate to resolve longstanding disputes.
Pakistan’s inner safety atmosphere additional complicates mediation efforts. Persistent tensions with India, ongoing instability alongside the Pak-Afghan border, menace of terrorism, and periodic financial crises all divert diplomatic focus and scale back the sources obtainable for long-term worldwide mediation. Efficient mediation is a long-term course of that requires constant diplomatic engagement, technical experience, and institutional capability. Pakistan’s diplomatic equipment often operates with competing inner and regional environments. This makes it tough to keep up long-term involvement in numerous peace processes.
Perceptions of neutrality additionally problem Pakistan’s mediatory efforts in Center Jap conflicts. Theoretically, for mediation efforts to achieve success, all events should consider that the mediator is neutral and reliable. Nevertheless, Pakistan’s deep strategic ties with Saudi Arabia and different Arab Gulf states typically trigger concern amongst opposing events. For instance, Pakistan’s longstanding defence and safety partnership with Saudi Arabia has traditionally hampered its capacity to be perceived as fully impartial by Iran, regardless of Islamabad’s constant efforts to keep up cordial relations with each nations. Equally, Pakistan’s in depth engagement with the Afghan Taliban has sometimes prompted segments of the previous Afghan political elite and a few Western policymakers to query Islamabad’s neutrality, regardless that Pakistan actively inspired negotiations and political settlements in Afghanistan previous to the autumn of Kabul in 2021. These perceptions, whether or not correct or not, regularly undermine the fighters’ willingness to totally embrace Pakistani mediation.
The geopolitical local weather additional limits Pakistan’s effectiveness as a mediator. Many current conflicts are more and more impacted by nice energy competitors, and depart little diplomatic house for center powers to independently safe complete settlements. The Afghan peace course of, for instance, introduced collectively the strategic pursuits of the US, China, Russia, Iran, India, Qatar, and quite a few different Gulf states. Equally, the continuing battle between Iran and the US is pushed by bigger points resembling nuclear proliferation, sanctions, Israel’s safety, insecurity of GCC states and regional proxy battle. In such instances, Pakistan can encourage dialogue and suggest confidence-building measures, but it surely lacks the power to deal with the underlying strategic calculations that drive the battle.
One other rationale for Pakistan’s comparatively low success price is the character of the mediation position Islamabad usually adopts. In contrast to well-established and well-known mediators resembling Qatar, the UAE, and Norway, who goal to succeed in binding agreements, Pakistan has regularly served as a facilitator, host, bridge-builder, or supplier of fine workplaces. These roles are much less obvious but nonetheless diplomatically vital. Facilitators generate alternatives for dialogue, present conducive atmosphere for dialogue, set up communication channels and reduce misperceptions. Though these measures might not end in landmark peace treaties, they regularly maintain stopping crises from escalating into broader armed battle. Therefore, measuring Pakistan’s mediation report solely primarily based on the variety of signed agreements understates its total contribution to regional stability.
Lastly, Pakistan’s mediation actions have sometimes suffered from an absence of follow-up by the opposing events themselves. A number of instances negotiations brokered by Pakistan started with hope however later disintegrated attributable to a number of sides withdrawing attributable to their home political elements or altered exterior or regional developments. Pakistan’s mediatory expertise in intra-Afghan dialogue exemplifies this problem. Though Pakistan performed a vital position in supporting the Doha talks, the next political trajectory in Afghanistan, mixed with deteriorating Pakistan-Afghanistan relations after 2021, proved that profitable mediation doesn’t assure long-term peace. Equally, Pakistan’s efforts to de-escalate tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran in 2016 and 2019 had been overshadowed by broader regional forces earlier than China helped dealer the 2023 diplomatic reconciliation.
However, Pakistan’s reasonable success price as a mediator shouldn’t be thought to be diplomatic failure. Worldwide mediation is inherently dangerous, and even probably the most skilled mediators have struggled to succeed in long-term settlements in extended conflicts. Pakistan’s comparative benefit is much less in imposing options than preserving dialogue when contact between adversaries has damaged down. Regardless of Islamabad’s structural limitations, its geographic proximity, long-standing regional relationships, understanding of native political dynamics of Iran and Afghanistan, and skill to keep up engagement with mutually hostile actors resembling Saudi Arabia and Iran are useful diplomatic property. As regional crises develop into extra frequent, Pakistan’s position as a facilitator and confidence-builder is more likely to stay a significant factor of Islamabad’s overseas coverage technique.
The author is a strategic analyst of worldwide safety. The views expressed are his personal.
