A resignation in New Delhi has resulted in the politics in Odisha hotting up. While it was watching the fast-paced developments in neighbouring West Bengal, the resignation of Dharmendra Pradhan as Union Education Minister and him receiving a hero’s welcome have sparked speculation over the BJP heavyweight’s next political move.
For the uninitiated, Dharmendra Pradhan, who’s the Lok Sabha MP from Sambalpur, is credited for building the party’s organisational muscles in Odisha. He commands the loyalty of a large number of MLAs and ministers, and is an alternative power centre in the state.
While the BJP projected Pradhan’s Odisha homecoming as a show of strength, political observers in Bhubaneswar see it as the start of speculation about the leader’s next role in the state where he built the saffron party from scratch. The reception at Bhubaneswar airport, attended by several Odisha ministers and MLAs, made many ask if the BJP was planning to assign the top job in the state to him. Just the buzz that Pradhan could be positioned for the CM’s role has unnerved some in Odisha’s political circles, say experts.
The circumstances of Pradhan’s resignation in New Delhi and the political mood in Odisha, however, make these speculations far from straightforward. Two Odisha-based political observers and an insider in the BJP’s political circle in Odisha say, while Pradhan remains one of the BJP’s most formidable leaders in the state, the road ahead would be based on calculations of the party high-command. However, they see him as a rightful claimant to the CM’s post.
Dharmendra Pradhan resigned as Union Education Minister after the CJP-led agitation over alleged examination irregularities demanded he quit from the post on the grounds of accountability. Pradhan’s return to the east-coastal state has ignited speculation over whether the saffron party is scripting a role change for the leader who’s been part of the Narendra Modi Cabinet since 2014. Though Pradhan has resigned as a Union minister, he continues to be the Sambalpur MP.
A Bhubaneswar-based journalist, who spoke to India Today Digital on condition of anonymity, says speculation about Pradhan’s return to state politics has unsettled internal equations and “set the cat among the pigeons”. We’ll get into the explanation of why the journalist said so. But before that, let’s first have a look at how Pradhan’s resignation has gone down with people in Odisha.
A HERO’S WELCOME, BUT ALSO AN IMAGE RESET FOR PRADHAN?
Bhubaneswar-based senior journalist and political commentator Rajaram Satpathy says the optics of Pradhan’s welcome at the Bhubaneswar airport were significant and noteworthy.
“Having relinquished his post as Union education minister in the face of fierce agitation over the NEET-UG question paper leak, Dharmendra Pradhan came home Tuesday [July 28] for the first time as an MP. There was, however, a good crowd at the airport to welcome him. The scene was reminiscent of the welcome NDA MPs gave him outside Parliament recently. Five of 16 ministers of the Mohan Charan Majhi-led government and 21 party MLAs were on hand to receive him,” Satpathy tells India Today Digital.
Satpathy also says that he believes the reception carried a political message. “Observers view the heroic welcome accorded to Pradhan as a desperate image make-over bid to sustain him in politics in the days ahead,” explains Satpathy.
Despite the setback, Satpathy argues that Pradhan’s stature within the BJP remains significant.
“Close to the BJP top brass in New Delhi, Pradhan is rated an influential national Odia leader after [former Odisha chief ministers] Biju Patnaik and Harekrushna Mahatab. He is also credited with building the BJP’s state unit almost from scratch to what it is today,” says Satpathy.
However, he says Pradhan’s resignation has altered some public perceptions in Odisha.
“Sadly, his public image belies his political standing. It certainly took a beating after the students’ agitation that forced him to finally put in his papers after all efforts reportedly to retain him in the ministry failed,” says Satpathy, adding that the public opinion on Pradhan in Odisha remains divided.
“People in Odisha, though, feel sad that an influential Odia in the Union government was sacrificed. However, they are divided,” Satpathy tells India Today Digital. “His critics justify his resignation, saying he failed to foresee the approaching danger despite being so experienced in government functioning. Pradhan, they say, could have done more to check the recurring chaos in one exam after another.”
The big question is where Dharmendra Pradhan goes from here. Interestingly, Pradhan was considered a frontrunner for the chief minister’s post after the BJP won the Assembly elections in Odisha for the first time in 2024. However, the BJP high command chose Mohan Charan Majhi, a four-time MLA from the tribal community representing the Keonjhar seat, to be the CM.
The move was seen by some as a signal from the BJP ahead of the Jharkhand Assembly polls, which the party lost.
WHAT NEXT FOR DHARMENDRA PRADHAN?
For now, Satpathy says there is little certainty about Pradhan’s immediate future. But he points to two possibilities.
“There is speculation on two things. He may lie low for some time, or the BJP may give him some party post and use him in organisational work,” Satpathy tells India Today Digital.
However, discussion around Pradhan’s future inevitably circles back to Odisha’s top post, given his journey from an ABVP leader to one of the principal architects of the BJP’s organisation in a state long dominated by the Biju Janata Dal (BJD) led by former CM Naveen Patnaik.
Satpathy recalls that after the BJP’s historic victory in 2024, Pradhan was seen as a contender. Asked whether that possibility could revive now, Satpathy remains unconvinced. “No. Distant possibility,” he says.
He also dismisses comparisons between “a timid” Mohan Charan Majhi and the BJP’s selection of firebrand leader Suvendu Adhikari in neighbouring West Bengal as the party’s face.
“Whether Pradhan stands a chance to be the CM in view of the contrast in dynamism between the Odisha CM and his West Bengal counterpart is all speculation,” Satpathy tells India Today Digital.
WHAT WORKS IN DHARMENDRA PRADHAN’S FAVOUR IN ODISHA?
Even though he has been in New Delhi for a considerable period of time (first as an MP since 2004 and then as a Union minister since 2014), Satpathy believes “Pradhan commands the support of a sizeable number of people in the party,” Satpathy says, pointing to the airport reception in the state capital as evidence.
“Pradhan is a big force in Odisha politics, and he claims the loyalty of at least 40 BJP MLAs, especially the younger ones,” says a Bhubaneswar-based journalist, who requested anonymity. He tells India Today Digital that Pradhan’s organisational influence in Odisha remains formidable.
The BJP has 79 MLAs in the 147-member Odisha Assembly.
An insider from within the Odisha BJP spoke about a dinner that was attended by ministers and MLAs. “There was discussion on the Assembly seats that could be vacated for Pradhan to contest from,” the person said.
The source said that there was a high possibility that the seat could be from Jharsuguda, which neighbours Sambalpur and is part of the Bargarh Lok Sabha constituency.
The journalist who didn’t want to be named, however, believes that the BJP leadership, which might want Pradhan at the helm in Odisha in the long run, is unlikely to make any immediate leadership changes.
“The Delhi stint certainly has made Dharmendra Pradhan more experienced, but not an edge in Odisha politics, given the wind currently blowing against him,” political commentator Satpathy tells India Today Digital.
ALL WELL WITHIN BJP IN ODISHA? IS RESURGENT BJD CATCHING UP?
Firstly, despite the goodwill of Odisha’s first tribal Chief Minister, dissatisfaction over governance and crime has surfaced within political circles. CM Majhi’s delivery is under scrutiny. The recent local body election in CM’s Keonjhar did not go that well for the BJP. According to a report in The New Indian Express newspaper, out of the 21 wards of Keonjhar municipality, the BJD won 13 seats while the remaining eight went to the BJP.
CM Mohan Charan Majhi is the MLA from Keonjhar.
“There is a resurgence in pro-BJD sentiments for the first time since the BJP swept the polls in 2024… The BJP’s setback in the Keonjhar municipality and the boost to the BJD following Sujata Rout Karthikeyan’s entry into the party might prevent the BJP brass from promoting Pradhan immediately,” the Bhubaneswar-based journalist says.
Sujata Rout Karthikeyan, a former IAS officer and wife of VK Pandian — the bureaucrat-turned-aide of BJD chief Naveen Patnaik — joined the party in June, almost two years after the regional party suffered a rout from the state it ruled for 24 years uninterrupted.
The party, needful of a robust second-rung leadership, found a helping hand in Sujata Rout’s husband, VK Pandian. A person of Tamil origin, he wielded considerable influence as the CM’s private secretary, played a central role in governance, and was even called Patnaik’s heir-apparent by many.
Pandian, following the BJD’s defeat in the 2024 elections, faced backlash. He stepped away from politics, taking moral responsibility. With Rout entering politics, the BJD is rebuilding itself. Pandian’s wife, Rout, is from Kendrapara district. Patnaik called her Sujata Rout instead of Sujata Rout Karthikeyan, according to a report in The Hindu.
WHY BJP MAY NOT BE IN A HURRY TO AWARD PRADHAN ODISHA’s TOP POST
The journalist from Odisha who spoke on the condition of anonymity says that he believes replacing the current CM could create fresh complications. “Asking Majhi to step down could become a ‘tribal issue’ while crowning Pradhan, who was forced to resign as a Union minister, might not go down well among the younger population,” he says.
He adds that even speculation about Pradhan returning to state politics has unsettled internal equations in the state unit of the BJP. “The buzz of Pradhan returning to state politics had set the cat among the pigeons.”
“Aparajita Sarangi, Baijayant Jay Panda and Manmohan Samal wouldn’t be too excited,” he says, pointing to the BJP heavyweights in Odisha. Majhi, he explains, started from the Dharmendra Pradhan camp but has lately aligned himself with Manmohan Samal.
Sarangi is a former IAS officer-turned-politician and serves as an MP representing the Bhubaneswar Lok Sabha seat. Baijayant Jay Panda is an industrialist-politician and is the National Vice-President for the BJP. Samal leads the BJP’s Odisha Unit.
“The BJP brass, if it has decided to make Pradhan the Odisha CM, might choose to wait for five to six months before going ahead with the plan,” the journalist tells India Today Digital, adding that perceptions about the former Union minister differ across generations in the state.
“A big chunk of the people over 40 in Odisha think that Pradhan will bring about change. He will be a better CM than Majhi. Even those who don’t support the BJP think Pradhan will do a better job,” he says. The journalist said making Pradhan the CM immediately might make the BJP “the target of youth, especially Gen Z, ire. That’s because of the baggage he carries from Delhi,” the Odisha-based journalist adds.
To conclude, time will tell whether Pradhan’s future lies in Bhubaneswar and when that time comes. The Delhi exit has certainly opened an opportunity for a chapter in Odisha. People on the ground say Pradhan could be an organisational strategist for the party with a pan-India role or could enter state politics. The question is how long the cooling-off period would be. The recent chain of events has definitely ignited debates over leadership even as Pradhan continues to enjoy New Delhi’s backing. Will the BJP’s next political move in Odisha determine Pradhan’s future? The picture might be clear in a few months.
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